JPMorgan: $50 billion entered into crypto in 2026, far from the promised record

"One swallow does not make a summer." Fifty billion dollars since January 1st. That is the amount JPMorgan strategists estimate has flowed into crypto in 2026. The figure appears in their Wednesday, October 7th note. In January, however, the bank had predicted a year surpassing the 2025 record, which was close to 130 billion. In April, it noted a meager first quarter at 11 billion. Autumn is bringing a bit of color back to the curve.

Extrapolated over twelve months, the pace reaches 66 billion dollars, compared to 52 billion at the May count. That is roughly half last year's cadence. In the meantime, the engine has changed.

JPMorgan widens the net to count crypto flows

Counting the money entering crypto is far from an exact science. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou’s team usually adds up four spigots. First, net subscriptions to crypto funds. Second, the impulse deduced from CME futures contracts (the Chicago exchange where institutional investors bet on the future price of bitcoin and ether). Then, venture capital fundraising. Finally, purchases by listed miners and treasuries.

This time, the bank is also incorporating unlisted corporate treasuries, private miners, and state-linked entities. That is what the note reviewed by The Block indicates. A broader scope mechanically inflates the total. Comparisons are not always valid, and you have been warned.

The gap with winter's promises remains huge. In January, JPMorgan was counting on a further increase in flows in 2026. It relied on institutional investors and the adoption of the Clarity Act, the US law meant to clarify the status of crypto assets. Nine months later, the counter shows less than 40% of the 2025 record.

ETFs and CME futures take back the lead in the third quarter

In the first half of the year, most of the money was draining from two pockets: Strategy's bitcoin purchases and venture capital. ETFs were dragging down the counter with heavy outflows in May and June. Since August, the tide has turned.

According to JPMorgan, exchange-traded index funds have turned back into the black for the year. Measured from the October 10, 2025 crash, however, their cumulative flows remain negative. On the CME, institutional bitcoin positions have surpassed their previous peak, and ether positions are nearing their October 2025 level.

CTAs are algorithmic trend-following funds that buy what goes up and sell what goes down. According to the bank's momentum signals, they are rebuilding long positions on bitcoin and ether. On offshore platforms, the leverage of perpetual contracts (futures contracts with no expiration date) has receded since the crash. It remains above its historical average.

Analysts see this as the joint return of retail and institutional investors. Enough to create, according to them, "a positive flow dynamic for the fourth quarter." On paper, the mechanics hold up.

Miners and treasuries: the crypto flows that are sticking

While ETFs are waking up, miners are emptying their vaults. Their net selling balance has reached about 1.8 billion dollars since January, a modest amount on a market scale. Listed companies account for the bulk of the movement. They are selling off fresh production and sometimes dipping into their reserves to finance data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence.

Among corporate treasuries, Strategy pulled the cart at the beginning of the year. Listed companies finance their purchases through share issuance, debt, or preferred stock—those hybrid securities that pay a priority dividend. The slider is shifting from debt to the latter, with more coupons to service every quarter, whether bitcoin goes up or not. Unlisted treasuries are buying little, for lack of flexible financing and stomach for volatility.

Venture capital has been doing better since 2024. However, money is concentrating in fewer, larger funding rounds led by established players. For infrastructure with predictable revenues, debt is sometimes replacing equity, and enterprise tokenization is attracting a growing share of checks. Competition remains fierce.