With decisions to censor electoral research, take down campaign posts, preliminary validation of candidacy, strategic interruption of trials and use of police power over social media, the president of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), Kassio Nunes Marques, abandoned the promise of a self-contained court in the 2026 elections.
The majority of TSE judges see in the minister's deliberations an explicit engagement in the campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and an attempt to "dig" an intervention by the STF (Supreme Federal Court) in electoral agendas, which could negatively impact Lula's (PT) campaign.
The concern led members of the electoral court to warn Supreme Court ministers, such as Flávio Dino and Gilmar Mendes, not to fall into traps and to think carefully before making decisions that could reverse TSE orders. The two have adopted a more discreet stance in this second round compared to the first.
Upon taking office as president of the TSE, in May, Kassio defended that the electoral court should act with prudence, "without incurring excesses incompatible with the democratic rule of law". At the time, the minister also signaled to interlocutors that the court should interfere as little as possible in political disputes.
He also indicated to assistants, in the weeks leading up to the inauguration, that he would avoid activating the TSE's police power, an assignment of the president to, even without a judicial process, take measures such as the removal of irregular advertising and the removal of illicit content. The instrument was one of the hallmarks of minister Alexandre de Moraes' management in the 2022 election.
The speeches, however, did not become reality. Less than a month later, Kassio ordered the publication of the Atlas/Bloomberg survey that showed a drop in Flávio's voting intentions after the "Dark Horse" case to be suspended. The measure resulted in an unprecedented, and until now innocuous, discussion about the regulation of research institutes.
In the TSE's most recent controversy, Kassio ended up using police power to take down the WhatsApp channel "Lula's Army". He ran over the electoral inspector general, Minister Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, who was the original rapporteur of an action on the same subject and had chosen not to grant the injunction requested by Flávio.
The president of the TSE also made a series of decisions favorable to the Bolsonaro campaign in actions regarding electoral propaganda. This week, for example, at Flávio's request, he suspended the circulation of a newspaper belonging to an oil workers union aligned with Lula. He also took down PT pieces that associated the rival with former banker Daniel Vorcaro.
On the day of the first round, on October 4, Kassio validated the candidacy of former federal deputy Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) for the Federal Senate, suspending the previous decision of colleague Floriano de Azevedo Marques, who had rejected the registration due to an impeachment imposed in 2023.
The war of injunctions waged by the president of the TSE in relation to other colleagues — as in the Deltan case and in the process over the "Lula's Army" — has been dubbed behind the scenes as a "treason". Magistrates speak of a “breach of trust” within the court.
Ministers Floriano, Cueva, Estela Aranha and Sebastião dos Reis Júnior, who are critical of Kassio's management and his decisions, joined forces to discuss possible reactions. Last week, the four discussed "discomfort" with the fact that Kassio interrupted trials with a majority already formed in favor of Lula.
This wing of the TSE understands that this is a maneuver by Kassio so that injunctions favorable to Flávio remain valid for longer. This occurred on at least four occasions, in actions involving advertisements or profiles that portrayed Lula as a "defender of criminals" and "friend" of organized crime.
Since the episodes about the posts involving Nossa Senhora Aparecida, this group's assessment is that Kassio wants to inflame the Supreme Court to the point of generating decisions that could be interpreted as pro-Lula judicial activism — which would result in more public criticism of the STF and, ultimately, electoral dividends for Flávio.
Kassio ignored recommendations from colleagues to schedule the referendum on André Mendonça's decision on posts about the patron saint within 24 hours, even though he had been warned about the potential for the issue to escalate to the STF, which actually happened following a decision by Dino.
Two magistrates assess that the president of the TSE took advantage of the matter to inspire the president of the Supreme Court, Edson Fachin, with the idea that there would be a problem of interference in the electoral court, even handing him a letter demanding action in this regard.
As Folha showed in August, Kassio's nods to theses supported by Flávio's defense in the pre-campaign provoked questions about the minister's management in the court and led the magistrate to seek adjustments to avoid erosion in the position.
To interlocutors, the president of the TSE denied acting in favor of any candidacy and said that the criticisms were an attempt at intimidation. He also stated that his deliberations follow a "decision-making standard" and that he interrupts virtual trials when he understands that the court's jurisprudence is being disrespected, so that this can be pacified in an in-person session.
The minister has also highlighted to his assistants that he acts with impartiality and balance, and that he has already made a series of decisions favorable to Lula — for example, when he refused to block publicity from the PT member about the end of the 6x1 scale or when he rejected breaking the confidentiality of profiles that were said to be attacking Flávio on social media.
