Climate and armed conflicts. Double-digit price increases are coming
According to the latest analyzes by global economists, in 2026 food prices are expected to increase by 11.8%, and in 2027 by another 4.8%. The most serious effects will affect crops of cereals, fruit, vegetables and dairy products.
The main reasons for these increases are ongoing armed conflicts, including Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as unfavorable weather phenomena, such as heat waves and droughts. The situation is also aggravated by high prices of energy and fertilizers, which put an additional burden on farmers.
The most serious impact will be on crops - cereals, fruits and vegetables - and dairy products, emphasizes economist Tomas Dvorak, quoted by Euronews. This will also translate into prices of processed products - bread, cheese, wine and oil - he adds.
Empty fields and expensive fuel. Europe will harvest millions of tons less cereals
Extreme heat and drought in Europe have already had a negative impact on this year's harvest. The Brussels-based Coceral association lowered the forecast for cereal harvests in the EU-27 countries and Great Britain from 295.5 million tonnes to 286.6 million tonnes. For comparison, a year earlier 310 million tons were collected. In Germany, the expected grain harvest is expected to decline by as much as 7%, reaching 41.9 million tons.
The heat wave not only destroyed crops, but also contributed to the increase in production costs. Disruptions in the supply of oil and other raw materials after the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz caused diesel prices to increase by 36 percent in July. per year, and fertilizers by 22%.
Paralysis in the Black Sea. 17 percent of world exports at risk
The war in Ukraine and attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports, loading terminals and ships are causing serious disruptions to grain exports from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov regions. Reports show that they may concern up to 86 million tons of annual export capacity - 52 million tons from Russia and 34 million tons from Ukraine - which corresponds to almost 17 percent. world grain exports.
Cereals constitute 25 percent. global food price index, and the two countries "together account for just under 30% of global wheat exports and over 10% of corn exports." As a result, global grain prices have increased by 6.9% and vegetable oil prices by as much as 17.3%. compared to the previous year.
A worst-case scenario for wheat. The raw material is more than a third more expensive
Wheat, which intensively uses fertilizers, is particularly exposed to price increases. According to forecasts, its prices may increase by 36%. year over year, reaching $6.92 per bushel (approximately 27 kg) in the third quarter of 2026. Wheat is the basis of many food products - from bread and pasta, through breakfast cereals, to biscuits.
Two waves of prices. Check when we will pay more in stores
The increase in raw material prices does not immediately translate into prices in stores, but experts predict that the effects will be noticeable in the coming months.
For fresh food, mainly fruit and vegetables, the impact will be relatively quick and likely to be visible in consumer prices within two to three months. For processed foods, delays are typically longer due to harvesting and processing times. There we expect the peak impact on consumer prices in about six to nine months, Dvorak explains.
