Escalating geopolitical tensions around the world and increasing concerns about energy security are bringing about a historic leap in renewable energy investments. The "Renewable Energy 2026" report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed the paradigm shift in global energy markets.
According to the report, the war that broke out on February 28 with the attacks of the USA and Israel against Iran and the supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are rapidly directing countries away from imported fuels and towards domestic and clean energy sources.
Thanks to the policies of governments that want to ensure energy security and protect themselves from fluctuating fossil fuel prices, it is predicted that global renewable energy capacity will increase by approximately 4,800 gigawatts in the 2026-2031 period. This figure is 60 percent more than the total capacity increase in the past 6-year period. More than three quarters of this huge capacity to be added by 2031 will be solar energy. The sun will be followed by land-type wind power plants.
One of the most striking findings in the report was the shift in the epicenter of global growth. Developing economies other than China have reached the same level as developed countries in renewable energy capacity increase for the first time in their history.
In the next 5 years, emerging and developing economies are expected to catch up with developed countries by adding approximately 1100 gigawatts of capacity. While investments are gaining momentum in India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa; It is estimated that the capacity increase in these regions will triple compared to the previous 6-year period. India doubles its capacity and becomes the second largest growth market in the world.
China, the undisputed leader of the global renewable energy market, is expected to contribute approximately 2,550 gigawatts in the same period. However, due to changes in the Beijing administration's renewable energy policies, it is estimated that China's global share, which was over 60 percent in 2025, will decrease to an average of 53 percent during the forecast period.
Despite this huge increase in investments, infrastructure inadequacies continue to be the biggest handicap for the sector. According to the report, the capacity of projects awaiting grid connection around the world increased by 60 percent last year. The total capacity of the projects currently awaiting connection is 4 times the wind and solar energy capacity integrated into the grid in the same period. It is warned that network constraints risk slowing down growth, especially in developed economies.
Evaluating the results of the report, IEA President Fatih Birol pointed out that the main motivation for the spread of renewable energy has shifted from environmental concerns to energy security. Birol used the following statements:
"The decline in costs has made renewable energy a competitive option in many markets. However, today its expansion is mainly driven by energy security concerns, as more and more countries are trying to reduce their dependence on imported fuels. A new era is beginning in the growth story of renewable energy, and this story has a truly global character. Renewable sources today account for one-third of the world's electricity production, and this rate is expected to approach half in the next 5 years."
