Polar vortex and El Niño face off: What will the weather be like this winter?

NEWS CENTER / According to CNN International, the simultaneous activation of En Niño and the polar vortex this year has turned the weather forecasts for the coming period into a "riddle" for meteorologists.

'MAJOR WARMING' ALARM IN THE STRATOSPHERE

"Sudden stratospheric warming" events, which are normally expected to occur between January and March, were moved to November with a rare earlyness this year. The strong winds surrounding the polar vortex have not only weakened, they have even begun to change direction.

This may open the door for freezing weather in the Arctic region to move south, that is, to the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (North America, Europe and Asia).

"This year is extraordinarily unique," said Andrea Lopez Lang, a meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, emphasizing that past historical data and past events are inadequate to explain this situation.

'THERE IS A BIG RIDDLE THERE'

What makes the situation even more complicated is the strong El Niño effect. This massive warming cycle in the Pacific Ocean is generally known for triggering a more stable polar vortex and milder winters. However, this time, the two entered the ring at the same time. El Niño may pave the way for milder and wetter winters. On the other hand, the dissolution of the polar vortex may trigger harsh winter scenarios by increasing the risk of Arctic cold moving south in sudden waves.

WHAT DOES THIS SITUATION MEAN?

Experts say that this early tremor does not directly guarantee that frosts or snowstorms will erupt everywhere; However, he states that it significantly increases the likelihood of severe cold waves (and therefore the risk of adverse weather conditions).

Since historical data cannot fully model this period, meteorological centers are watching with bated breath the position of the jet streams and wind fluctuations in the coming weeks. This winter seems to witness the struggle of two giant forces of nature.

THE FIRST FACE OF WINTER

Parts of the United States and Europe will feel the first effects of winter this week with a cold snap that may be linked to the disruption of the polar vortex. Polar air spreading over North America and Europe on Wednesday will continue into the weekend, and cold air will peak in most regions on Thursday or Friday. This means the first widespread frost of the season in much of the eastern United States and northwestern Europe.

These cold temperatures are not expected to be extreme, but will mark a sharp transition after unusually warm summer and autumn seasons in places such as the US East Coast and the UK.

Almost everywhere in the United States east of the Mississippi River will experience the coldest weather since spring, and temperatures in much of the eastern half of the country will be about 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) below mid-November averages. Similar unusually cold weather will also affect Northern Europe.