The underground and illegal economy is worth 218.2 billion: it is worth 9.9% of the GDP. Irregular work is growing

It always depends on how you look at the glass whether half full or half empty. But the fact is that the unobserved economy (i.e. the sum of the underground and illegal economy) in Italy is worth 218.2 billion euros. Given the extent of the problem, however, some positive signs can be identified in the latest data relating to 2024 released by Istat on the morning of Friday 16 October. Firstly, growth compared to the previous year (2023), which had always been characterized over time by more substantial increases, stood at +0.3% compared to a GDP growth of 3.2 percent. The impact on GDP fell to 9.9% from 10.2% the previous year with a reduction of 0.3 percentage points.

As Istat explains in its press release, the underground economy (i.e. net of illegal activities) stands at 198.4 billion (+0.8 billion compared to the previous year), while the value of illegal activities drops to 19.8 billion. Irregular work units are just under 3.3 million, with an increase of over 145 thousand units compared to 2023.

Therefore, irregular work units increase by 4.6% compared to 2023. The growth is recorded both for the employee component (+5.4%, +121.8 thousand units) and in the independent one (+2.7%, +23.4 thousand units). Istat recalls that irregular work positions are defined as those for which current legislation on tax and social security matters is not respected, as well as those relating to illegal activities and, therefore, not observable directly at companies, institutions and through administrative sources.

«The increase in the irregularity rate - reports the national statistics institute - is due to the strong growth of irregular work, whose dynamics (+4.6%) is approximately three times higher than that of the regular component. The latter shows an increase of 1.6% in 2024 (approximately +339 thousand AWU), exclusively for the employee component which grows by 2.9% (+437.5 thousand AWU regular employees). The regular independent AWUs instead recorded a decrease of 1.6% (-98.5 thousand regular independent AWUs)".

There are other data that should make us reflect. Firstly, the weight of the underground economy on added value is higher in Other personal services, where it reaches 30.7%, in Commerce, transport, accommodation and catering (18.5%) and in Construction (17.7%). While there is a more limited incidence in Other business services (5%), in the Production of investment goods (4%) and in the Production of intermediate goods (1.4%).