The Italian industry holds, towards an all-time high of 1,168 billion euros

Italian manufacturing has shown greater resilience than expectations formulated after the strong geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Turnover at constant prices increased by 0.7% in the first seven months of 2026, confirming the recovery path started in the second half of 2025, and is expected to close the year with growth of 0.8%, after three consecutive years of contraction. This is what emerges from the report on the industrial sectors of Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia.

The recovery, according to what emerges from the analysis, is still characterized by elements of fragility. Nominal turnover was more dynamic, growing by 2.7% in the first seven months of the year, due to an acceleration in production prices which reflects the tensions recorded on the energy and raw materials markets.

The rise in prices will bring manufacturing turnover to an all-time high of 1,168 billion euros at the end of the year, an increase of approximately 257 billion compared to 2019 (+4.1% on 2025). The prospects for the two-year period 2027-2028 see manufacturing still growing, but at a limited development pace.

Turnover at constant prices is expected to increase by 0.8% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028. On the foreign front, the spotlight remains on the European market, in particular on the revival of German demand. The trade balance of the Italian manufacturing industry could reach 123 billion euros by 2028.

Investments represent an important factor in supporting industrial demand and recorded an increase of 3.4% in the second quarter of 2026. A dynamic profile also in the final part of the year.