At 5 pm on Friday, C leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist announced that she had received the proposals she requested from Ulf Kristersson (M) and S leader Magdalena Andersson about how they want to govern together with C.
Kristersson's chances of becoming prime minister improved when Jimmie Åkesson announced last Friday that the SD might consider launching a bourgeois four-party government, including C. It would rule in a minority, with fewer mandates than the three red-green parties S, V and MP, which would make the SD the wave master.
- The weapon of mistrust is there, said Åkesson on TV4 and stated that SD is ready to bring down a bourgeois government if they are not heard in budget negotiations.
At the same time, C has said no to collaboration with SD. During the week, the discussions between the bourgeois parties revolved around how a minority government can get its policy through without too much dependence on SD, says an insider L source.
- It would be difficult to make such a project last for a long time. Minority governments require dialogue and collaboration, and the Center Party must also understand that. You will have to talk to SD unless the red-greens want to cooperate, says the source.
The same assessment is made by political science professor Jan Teorell, an expert on Swedish government formations.
- I find it difficult to see how such a government would not become very dependent on the Sweden Democrats. It's not just about the budget, it's about every vote. I think that is precisely the reason why SD dared to make this announcement. They are very calculating, he says.
For the Liberals, the issue of SD is particularly charged. The party was almost cracking up, and risked leaving the Riksdag, when it changed its line and said yes to SD. Therefore, there is a skepticism towards meeting C.
- How much are we backing down now regarding collaboration with SD? How much do we backtrack on the whole journey that our party has made? Those are the parts that are sensitive to us, says the L source to DN.
One path that has been discussed on the bourgeois side is "jumping majorities", that is, seeking support from different parties on different issues. Something that was also brought up in talks with the Center Party, according to DN's sources. Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson highlighted this in SVT's Aktuellt on Thursday evening.
- I am thinking of Denmark, where you have a four-party government in the minority but in different parts and individual issues negotiate with different parties. Could it be a model in Sweden as well? Svantesson said.
An M source points out that S has indeed said no to cooperation, but that one can still hope for agreement on defense and security policy. Several in the bourgeois parties, and in the Center Party, raise the possibility of attracting MPs with climate policy proposals. Something that is also highlighted is that S would also probably have a new party leader if Kristersson succeeds in forming a government. Another source emphasizes that many decisions in the Riksdag are made without a vote, by so-called acclamation.
But the most important thing for every government is to get its budget through.
Admittedly, the budget process is designed so that even a minority government will get its economic policy through. For the opponents to win, a majority must gather behind one and the same counter-proposal. But if M, KD, L and C form a minority government, it is enough for V and MP to vote for S's proposal in the decisive vote for the government's budget to fall. Then the only way to avoid defeat is for the bourgeois to get SD's support.
Political scientist Jan Teorell sees no way around it by dividing the budget and trying to use "jumping majorities".
A bourgeois minority government that is formed on the condition that it cannot cooperate with SD would have a short shelf life, he believes.
- If the parties involved accept SD's influence, it can last, as long as the government doesn't do anything that makes SD want to join forces with the left and vote it out. The Sweden Democrats are well aware that they have the power to blackmail, says Teorell.
The question of whether a bourgeois minority government can be formed without C violating its red lines ultimately becomes a question of what one puts in the word "cooperation", says Jan Teorell.
- Then you have to disturb the meaning. Perhaps they say that they do not have a formal agreement with SD, or any formal collaboration on the budget. That's the way to phrase it, he says.
