Ukraine warns of a GDP cut by 1.5 points in 2026 because of Russian strikes

kyiv is once again warning of the catastrophic consequences of the war led by Russia. The Ukrainian economy risks seeing its GDP cut by 1.5 points in 2026 due to the intensification of Russian strikes, Ukrainian officials said on Saturday who fear a “very difficult” winter.

Cereal exports affected

Russia has largely ravaged Ukraine's energy sector since its invasion began in February 2022 and has since this summer stepped up its missile and jet drone strikes, which Ukraine has struggled to intercept. These attacks have led to the blockage of grain exports through the Black Sea, a crucial source of income for this country, also targeting metallurgical companies, another key sector, and logistics chains, including railways and important warehouses.

“The economy is in the most difficult situation,” Prime Minister Sergiy Koretsky said at the annual Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum in kyiv. “The intensity of the strikes has sharply increased,” as has the extent of the “destruction.”

Infrastructure losses caused by Russian attacks are likely to amount to $10 billion in 2026, added Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko at the same forum. These destructions and the blockade of seaports risk reducing the national GDP by 1.5 points, he indicated, while some Western experts speak of a “catastrophic” situation.

“It’s already bad,” commented Roksolana Pidlassa, chair of the budget committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. “Russia is specifically targeting revenue-generating sectors by attacking grain corridors, seaports and metallurgical factories.” The largest Ukrainian steelworks, ArcelorMittal Kryvyï Rig, located in the center of the country, reported on Saturday that two employees were killed in a Russian missile strike on the company.

kyiv also intensifies its strikes

Ukraine has also intensified its strikes on Russian territory, particularly targeting refineries and logistics warehouses, in response to Moscow's attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes that Donald Trump will put pressure on Russia to obtain the unblocking of ports in the Black Sea and a mutual suspension of strikes on energy sites.

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And on public spending, military costs for Ukraine are increasing: in 2024, “one day of war cost 140 million dollars” while this year, “it’s 190 million dollars,” noted Roksolana Pidlassa. Ukraine ended up this year for the first time starting to use international aid even to pay the salaries of its soldiers, the lawmaker added.