Tensions in the Middle East: reopening of Iraqi border crossings and oil escalation

Iraqi authorities announced on Sunday the gradual reopening of three border crossings with Iran, closed the day before after an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline launched from Iraqi territory. “After reviewing their operation”, they will reopen to passenger and goods traffic according to a schedule extending from Sunday to Thursday, indicated the government communications service responsible for security issues.

Baghdad had fired the military commander of Missan province, in the south of the country, on Saturday after establishing that the drones had been fired from this area, and closed the crossing points to reorganize operations. Intelligence activities have also been strengthened to determine “the flaws”, according to the authorities.

The crossing points affected are those of Shalamcheh (Basra province) and al-Shib (Misan province), both located in southern Iraq, as well as al-Mandali, in the central province of Diyala.

Since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran at the end of February, oil has become the thermometer of this war which is being fought remotely with missiles and drones. After six months of acute crisis in the Middle East, the oil market was in a precarious balance: the Saudi East-West pipeline and the drop in Chinese demand were somehow compensating for the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

This fragile edifice has just collapsed with the closure of the oil pipeline, hit by drones fired from Iraq, and the capture of the Bab al-Mandab strait by pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in Yemen following a lightning offensive. Brent surpassed $100 this week and could continue to rise on Monday. What would be the consequences for the rest of the war and for the world economy? The engineer and energy economist Thierry Bros, teaching at Sciences Po Paris, sheds light on future scenarios.

THE INTERVIEW WITH THIERRY BROS

An Iranian commercial ship was targeted on Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz by a strike that left one person dead, authorities reported against a backdrop of clashes between Iran and the United States around this strategic route.

“A merchant ship was hit around 05:00 (01:30 GMT) this morning off the coast of Hengam Island and Qeshm Island. One person was killed and three others injured,” declared the governor of the city of Qeshm, Amir Teymouri, quoted by state television and the Tasnim agency, without specifying the origin of this strike. Several explosions were reported overnight around Qeshm, which is the largest island in the Strait of Hormuz.

Yemen's Houthi rebels said on Sunday they had attacked a military base in southern Saudi Arabia, a country that supports Yemeni government forces, with drones and missiles.

This attack targeted “arms depots as well as command and control centers from where the aggression against our nation and our people is directed, on the Sharurah military base”, near the border with Yemen, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said on X. The date of this operation has not been specified.

Some 1,400 people have fled Yemen, plagued by fighting since September between government forces and the Houthis, towards Djibouti, the Djiboutian Minister of the Economy announced on Saturday.

The Houthis, who until then controlled a large part of the north of the country, including the capital Sanaa, and Hodeida (west), advanced on the coast in a few days, seizing the port city of Mokha on Thursday.

They then took control of the coast and islands in the Red Sea, consolidating their hold on the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which maritime traffic passes to and from the Suez Canal. “1,400 refugees have arrived in Djibouti from Yemen in the last 24 hours,” Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh wrote on X.

Somali pirates briefly boarded a ship off the coast of Yemen on Thursday, the European Union Naval Force (Eunavfor) and security authorities in the Puntland region said on Saturday, a new attack on a boat in the region.

Six armed men stormed the MT Glamor, a ship flying the flag of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, on Thursday, about 70 kilometers from the Yemeni coast, according to a report published by Eunavfor, which is responsible for the fight against piracy in Somali waters.

The American army announced on Saturday that it had turned back one hundred ships since the resumption, in mid-July, of the blockade imposed by the United States on Iran.

“Centcom forces have hijacked 100 commercial ships over the past 60 days,” the US Middle East Command assured X, adding that “NO ships” have crossed the blockade without its authorization.

The United States imposes a blockade of Iranian ports to deprive Tehran of revenue, in response to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic sea route.

Yemen's Houthis said Saturday they had freed more than 200 of their fighters who were detained by government forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, after seizing several areas on the Red Sea in recent days.

“We received 210 of our prisoners released from the Saudi enemy's prisons on the western coast,” Houthi official Abdelkader al-Mourtada said at a conference in Sanaa.

According to him, these are “prisoners of war” who spent between five and eight years in government prisons.

The Houthis, who until then controlled a large part of the north of the country, including the capital Sanaa and Hodeida (west), have progressed southwards in recent days, seizing several sectors on the Red Sea close to the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.

At least 76,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since July, their numbers quadrupling in the past week due to an upsurge in fighting, the UN announced on Saturday.

“The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is warning of a rapidly worsening displacement crisis in Yemen, which is evolving by the hour,” the UN agency said in a statement. “At least 76,000 people have fled their homes since July (...) four times the total last week, as fighting intensifies,” she added.

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian and Emirati Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke on Saturday in New Delhi on the sidelines of the summit of Brics leaders, the Iranian embassy in India announced on X, publishing a photo of the two leaders.

This meeting comes as the United Arab Emirates suspended their trade and financial exchanges with Tehran in August, in conflict with the United States since February, after being targeted by Iranian missiles. The Iranian embassy spoke incorrectly, for this meeting, of the “president” of the Emirates.

Donald Trump said Saturday that Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthis, who have seized a strategic crossing point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, had asked the United States not to intervene.

“We had discussions. The Houthis called us” and “they don’t want us to go after them,” said the American president, during an exchange with the press during a visit to Ireland.

Chinese organizations provided Iran with satellite images of a base in Jordan before and after an attack that cost the lives of three American soldiers in July, reports the Wall Street Journal, in a context of tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Three soldiers were killed on July 17 in Iranian missile strikes against the Muwaffaq Salti air base in Jordan, where American forces are stationed. Anonymous US officials cited in the article published by the Wall Street Journal on Friday evening did not identify the Chinese entities involved and did not suggest that Beijing was directly responsible.

The issue was raised with Chinese officials, who asked for proof of the transfer of these satellite images and did not acknowledge that Chinese companies were involved in providing them to Tehran. The subject could return to the table during US President Donald Trump's reception at the White House of Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24.

Donald Trump has warned Chinese authorities against selling weapons to Iran, and in May Washington sanctioned three China-based satellite companies for facilitating Iranian military operations. China is one of Iran's main economic partners, purchasing much of its oil production, and also providing significant diplomatic support.