"The justification for such an escalation - El Mundo continues in its report - has been on the table for some time. Moscow has repeatedly insisted on the fact that providing weapons, information and military advisors to Ukraine makes Western countries participants in the war and legitimate targets. So far, it has acted below what experts define as the war threshold, thus avoiding actions that could provoke a coordinated response from NATO. However - the Spanish newspaper continues - it has launched a growing campaign of sabotage against targets in countries that support Ukraine, as well as isolated episodes apparently designed to test limits and gauge reaction."
A first escalation, it was reported, occurred when 19 drones, without ammunition, entered Polish airspace about a year ago. The crucial turning point was the recent incident involving armed drones at Leipzig airport which the German authorities attribute to Moscow's intelligence. The Lithuanian authorities, El Mundo continues in its analysis, "now even know the type of drone that the Russians could use against Spain, France or Italy. It would be a Gerbera: about two meters long, with a wingspan of 2.5 meters, weighing up to 18 kilograms, capable of reaching speeds of around 160 kilometers per hour and with a declared autonomy of 600 kilometers, depending on the explosive load transported and other variables such as the wind". According to what emerged and the CIA's warning, "a merchant ship can carry several of these drones, which can be launched with much less difficulty than a Shahed or a Geran, which are considerably larger". From a distance of 200 or 300 km from the coast, it was reported again, "the flight would last approximately one hour and fifteen minutes to two hours, depending on the actual speed. Its small payload is not sufficient to destroy a large structure, but it could cause a fire, damage exposed equipment or temporarily close a port or airport."
Again according to El Mundo, "Lithuania, like other countries, was aware of this information shortly after the mysterious trip to Moscow by CIA director John Ratcliffe, which took place on August 25th". Ratcliffe, it is reconstructed, "had arrived on board a US military plane that had stopped in Riga, right on the Baltic flank of NATO". There is no public evidence of his meetings in Latvia, it is reported, "although diplomatic sources from a Baltic country confirm that they were informed of the trip in advance and were subsequently made aware of it." The Wall Street Journal and Politico, in this sense, had reported that Ratcliffe "had traveled to Lithuania to warn Russia against any attack or provocation against NATO". According to sources familiar with the alert, the Iberian newspaper continues, "the governments of Spain, France and Italy were also informed that Russia was preparing for a possible drone operation against one of these countries". This warning, it is analyzed further, coincides among other things with the particular reaction of Emmanuel Macron. “After convening the Defense Council on September 16, two days later he called the leaders of all parties and candidates for the 2027 presidential elections to the Elysée Palace.”
Several defense analysts interviewed, El Mundo claims, then confirmed that they were aware of a CIA report that was circulated among European foreign ministries, "a very precise report in the description of the attack and to which the French gave considerable credence".
