The cautious reaction of the National Rally to the rise of the AfD in Germany

The very discreet and distant reaction of the National Rally (RN, far-right), Marine Le Pen's party, to the resounding victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the German land of Saxony-Anhalt contrasts with the widespread alarm among French parties over the rise of ultras in the neighboring country. Only the Reconquista party, led by Éric Zemmour, an AfD ally in the European Parliament, has expressed its satisfaction, although without excessive enthusiasm.

Two years ago, the RN broke with the AfD in the European Parliament and since then they have sat in different groups. “A certain number of disagreements led us to distance ourselves from the AfD,” recalled the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, last Saturday at the political forum in Cernobbio (Italy). Bardella denied that a victory for the German party would lead to a new rapprochement. “It is not planned,” said Bardella, who strives to maintain a moderate profile. However, he did break a point in favor of the AfD by highlighting that “the electoral pressure” it has exerted “has contributed to the Merz Government moving, since Germany reestablished controls on its borders a few months ago.”

After the victory in Saxony-Anhalt, the main leaders of the RN have preferred to remain silent. Only deputy Philippe Tanguy, after recalling the break with AfD, stressed that we must “take note of a popular vote of fed up with the parties of the system that do not manage immigration, the economy and energy prices.”

The National Rally, whose candidate is the favorite in the French presidential elections next spring, must be careful not to congratulate itself on the progress of a party in which very extreme positions coexist, even neo-Nazis. The RN, under Marine Le Pen, has made a great effort for years to discard these approaches and aesthetics, adopting an image of a civilized and respectable party.

Despite caution, the RN, in the person of Bardella, made a mistake last week by accepting a photo with the ultra-British leader Nigel Farage, of the Reform UK party, at an event in Birmingham. In a somewhat ridiculous scene, both posed with a giant enlargement of a supposed bilateral memorandum of understanding on immigration policy, of no legal value, with both signatures, in the event that they come to power in Paris and London. In its last point it is said that France undertakes to readmit all illegal immigrants who are intercepted by the British coastguard in the English Channel and to send them to their countries of origin. Such a commitment, politically explosive and unrealizable in practice, has been harshly criticized by all parties. Le Pen has remained silent. Bardella's gesture is interpreted as a serious error of inexperience and naivety, inappropriate for someone who aspires to be prime minister. Either he or his collaborators did not read the text carefully before signing it, or Farage slipped in the most controversial point at the last minute.

Zemmour's response to what happened in Germany has not been as enthusiastic as one might imagine being partners of the AfD in Europe. They are not very comfortable partners. According to Zemmour, the media will accuse the voters of what happened, but the truth is that "the real people responsible are those who, for half a century, treated as a crime what the people understand as evidence, the desire to continue being themselves."

There is a fundamental issue that is beginning to worry in France about the evolution of Germany, but few still express it in public. It is about rearmament on the other side of the Rhine, about the gigantic investment in defense, which would become a very problematic development, reminiscent of ghosts from the past, if the ultras came to govern the country.