Humiliation, hatred and revenge. Three words for a single political story. It all started in the 2015 general elections, the elections of outrage over the 2008 crisis, with the vote of five and a half million people on the entire left of the PSOE united around Pablo Iglesias. It continued with successive splits and episodes of soap opera fratricidal wars, while voters fled. And this weekend ended with the "end" of the breakup. For the first time in a decade, there will be two lists on 29-N in the space to the left of the PSOE.
One of the many people who know, and who have suffered, the often unseemly episodes of the last decade summarizes what happened in this way. " Podemos has negotiated in bad faith with Ada Colau and Gabriel has wanted to help his friends, Irene and Pablo, to take revenge for an old grudge with Yolanda. Irene and Pablo were convinced that everyone was going to get behind them, that Yolanda's Sumar space and the legacy of Más Madrid's Errejonism would disappear, that the Commons would swallow it, and that Izquierda Unida would surrender to them. At some point during the week, we all thought that it could But they did not realize that IU is a real party, even though it is small and heavy, that could not abandon a table where it had been working for a long time, by allying itself with people who have also mistreated them. Podemos has wanted to use Rufián's political courage to displace the rest of the parties to lead the left alone and it has turned out badly.
In the last elections, it was the Sumar coalition led by Yolanda Díaz, which vetoed the presence of Irene Montero on the lists. Tit for tat. Montero, led by Gabriel Rufián, has taken the most visible faces of Sumar off the court, now a memory. The former leader of the coalition, second vice president of the Government, left the stage months ago, leaving her space orphaned of more than half of its votes.
The presentation of two candidates to the left of the PSOE has plunged into disappointment, anger and impotence the supporters of the confederal space and broad cultural and media sectors that opted for unity as the only way to optimize all the votes. The sources consulted in that space conclude that, truly, there was never any real possibility of an agreement despite the fact that the suspense remained until almost midnight from Saturday to Sunday, when the coalition registration period for 29-N ended. "At that point, the parties were just trying to put the blame on the other."
Sumar, the coalition that won 31 seats in the last general elections, has divided into two in Madrid and Barcelona - Frente Amplio and Podemos -, and into a soup of acronyms in the rest of the communities. Demoscopic forecasts indicate that this division will be disastrous for the left of the PSOE, forced to choose between two options: Montero-Rufián or Ada Colau-Emilio Delgado. For greater originality of the electoral offer, the Frente Amplio candidate for the Presidency of the Government, Ada Colau, heads the list for Barcelona, not for Madrid, which is a custom that no large or medium-sized party has abandoned in the 50 years of democracy.
On November 29 we will know who wins this two-way competition, or the aphorism attributed to Confucius will be fulfilled: if you seek revenge, dig two graves.
The disunity of the left will have an important general effect on the governability of Spain, since it will make it practically impossible to reissue the progressive coalition Government, but also a second particular consequence at the polls. The useful vote can benefit the PSOE, a little or a lot we will see. The socialist leadership blames the lack of agreement on the hatred that has poisoned the protagonists, especially visible and bloody on social networks, although it believes that "the most powerful electoral ticket, without a doubt, is that of Irene Montero-Gabriel Rufián." "They will be more capable of mobilizing something than Ada Colau and Emilio Delgado. Ada's leadership is very worn out, and Emilio is unknown to the citizens."
"Something could have been built about Gabriel and Irene, but the rest did not want to. A shame, because what is foreseeable is that both of them will have a bad result. And what is foreseeable is that naturally, without us lifting a finger, we will have enough useful votes, many people disappointed and frustrated by the lack of agreement, will stay at home, we are going to try to make them as few as possible. Another part will go to the PSOE and another to be distributed between the two. A disaster that will leave them without representation in medium-sized provinces and small." Pedro Sánchez's team, very lively in these first two weeks of pre-campaign, does not rule out giving the surprise with a "magnificent" result.
