Once the party is over, you now have to collect the glasses and plates left over from the previous night. The Democrats have experienced a success this week like they have not remembered in generations. To find a similar turnaround in Congress you have to go back half a century, when Richard Nixon's resignation over the Watergate scandal left Republicans shivering. But, once the great objective has been achieved, now comes the really difficult part.
The most important thing for them will be to convince an electorate that turned its back on the party of Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris that the new leaders do have solutions to their daily problems. Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential elections, Democrats will have to organize their ranks and see what recipes to offer and, above all, which wing of the party is going to take the lead: whether the centrists of the establishment, such as the foreseeable future president of the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, or the progressives led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Two things seem certain. First, the absolute priority is to stop skyrocketing prices. The scarcity of gasoline, housing, food, healthcare and practically everything necessary on a daily basis explains electoral results that, in the words of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, are close to the “extinction of the Republican Party, as has not been seen in the last 100 years.”
The problem in finding these solutions is that Donald Trump is going to remain in the White House for two more years and has threatened to veto any proposal that comes out of Congress. It is also not clear who would benefit from an eventual improvement in the quality of life in 2028: the president's party, or the Democrats, who after Tuesday's elections come to control both Chambers.
"Americans don't want us to take revenge. They want us to do things for them. We campaigned on the cost of living, we won with that message and now our job is to govern with them in mind," Jeffries summarized on Thursday on the Morning Joe program. That is the majority feeling in the party.
Little desire for impeachment
The second conclusion from these elections is that the Democrats have little desire to embark on an impeachment of Trump, a process that would consume a lot of attention and that in the past did not give the expected results: it did not serve to oust the president and, instead, gave him a privileged platform.
They also do not want to enter into cultural wars such as trans rights or other identity issues that conservatives have been able to take advantage of so well. Perhaps it has been the future governor of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, who has most clearly summarized this feeling: "The left-right debate is not what we need now. It is about the 99.9% in the same boat versus some 15 billionaires from the technology sector who control the Government. That is what people voted against in these elections, not only Democrats, but also independents and Republicans."
Dave Hopkins, professor of Political Science at Boston College, points in the same direction, saying that in the last 10 years the party has paid a very high price for the cultural wars, which have greatly complicated its ability to attract the working classes, including members of minorities such as blacks and Latinos. "There is a consensus among the different factions of the party that they now have to focus on the economy and equal opportunities. The problem is that the recipe to achieve this improvement varies greatly depending on whether it comes from one leader or another," he says by video call. Hopkins' latest book, Polarized by Degrees, addresses how the education gap and the culture war have transformed American politics.
two souls
The internal battle has not yet begun, but no one doubts that it will come at some point. Because when it comes to promoting measures, we will have to see which soul of the party prevails. Centrists have breathed a sigh of relief due to the magnitude of the victory in the House of Representatives. Without allocating twenty seats, the Democrats already have 253 congressmen (more than 100 will be women, for the first time in history).
This gives them a wide margin above the majority, of 218 seats, which will prevent threats of blockade from the leftist sector in case they are tempted to obtain some compensation in this way. Thus, it is unlikely that there will be a repeat of the usual scenes of chaos in the last two years, when Republicans have had a majority of just four seats in the lower house.
Precisely, the strength of the Democrats in these midterms in all corners of the country - except in Florida, which remains a great Republican stronghold - diminishes the strength of the argument that the progressives already outlined. Ocasio-Cortez, who had been fully involved in campaigns like Abdul El-Sayed's, saw that race as proof of the strength of the left. If a candidate like him could win in a pivotal state like Michigan, perhaps she could also dream of running for president. The problem is that El-Sayed has won, yes, but so have other centrists throughout the south and center of the country. And the senators who have really made a splash, like Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas, are not part of the most progressive sector of the party.
It is also interesting to observe how the leaders of the blue party have adopted a tone very focused on the concerns of American citizens and insist on ignoring what is happening outside the borders.
El-Sayed, the future senator who has emerged as one of the stars of the left, justifies his rejection of aid to Israel with the argument that a country with social problems cannot be attentive to helping outsiders. “I don't think it's my responsibility to buy defensive weapons for a foreign government when our own children are defenseless in front of schools that have been underfunded for a long time,” he said before the election.
Mark Brewer, a professor at the University of Maine, confirms this inward turn that the party has undertaken: "Democrats have taken note of the lesson of Trump, who became very popular with his promise of America First. The problem is that he said he would keep the country away from unnecessary foreign conflicts, but he ended up starting a war [against Iran] of his own free will. In addition, Israel is becoming less and less popular. All of this will have an effect on the Democrats' future decisions."
Hopkins has more doubts about this last aspect. The expert does believe that there will be greater emphasis on issues that affect citizens, but that does not imply that a future Democratic president will adopt an isolationist policy. "The tradition in this country is to wave the 'us first' flag at election time. But I believe that the absolute foreign policy priority of a future Democratic president would be to repair relations with our allies abroad," he considers.
And finally, who is warming the bench thinking about the 2028 presidential elections? It is impossible to make predictions. There is a wide range of names that will mature in the coming months. From former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is increasingly hiding her interest in running again, to Ocasio-Cortez, passing through senators like Ossoff or Mark Kelly and governors like Josh Shapiro. The bidding is open and will not stop until January 2028, when the Democratic primaries will begin. This time, in South Carolina.
