The El Niño phenomenon, which is already developing in the Pacific Ocean, may be the most intense in memory in a century, as the British Meteorological Office (Met) warned this Friday. Heavy storms and rain will hit north-west Europe, including the UK, this autumn and winter, while the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia will be at increased risk of drought. 2027 is already anticipated to be the warmest ever recorded, explains the Met. For its part, despite the weak connection between El Niño and the climate in Spain, a very strong episode could favor autumns or beginnings of winter that are rainier than normal, according to Aemet.
This phenomenon is one of the main factors that naturally drive global climate variability and occurs when the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (especially off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador) warm more than normal for several months, which means that human-caused global warming increases by a few tenths.
However, the strength it has now acquired has made it “an unprecedented phenomenon, since such an intense El Niño signal has never been seen in our forecasts,” said Adam Scaife, head of meteorology at the Met.
The United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) already declared that the sea waters in the central tropical Pacific marked a thermal anomaly of more than 0.5 ºC on a continuous basis, which was the alert of the presence of this phenomenon and its impact on precipitation and temperatures on a global scale.
The Met warns today that this warming of marine waters could exceed 3°C in the coming months, which would make this year's phenomenon "the largest since the 19th century." According to the Climate Brink data panel, which is based on NOAA records, a peak of 3.9 °C could be reached in November, a figure much higher than the 3 °C anomaly already recorded in 2015, the year that held the record.
El Niño episodes cause a rise in global temperature that is generally observed the year following the episode. For this reason, 2027 is expected to be the warmest year ever recorded, according to the British Met.
This year, however, is not far behind, the exceptional succession of heat waves and the lack of precipitation in recent months have led to the driest July in 190 years and have led Europe to an unprecedented water crisis, with its rivers at historic lows, in addition to the drought situation that affects almost three quarters of England and all of Wales.
A situation that has caused severe pressure on the water supply system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure across the continent. In the case of the English, they find reservoirs that have dropped to 62.6%, 16.3% below what is usual for this time of year, according to official data.
The climate is becoming warmer and drier in some places, and cooler and wetter in others as a result of this phenomenon, which will provide a preview of the temperatures the world will experience regularly towards the end of the 2030s, according to experts.
This summer has been one of the hottest in Spain, although these temperatures cannot be directly attributed to El Niño, says Aemet. However, they clarify that, although the connection between this phenomenon and the weather in Europe "is weak", in very strong episodes it can favor autumns or early winters that are rainier than normal in Spain.
