The global energy transition risks stalling just when renewables are breaking every record. Electricity networks, storage and energy efficiency are not keeping pace with the growth in installed capacity. And with ever-increasing energy demand, clean sources end up complementing fossil fuels rather than replacing them.
This is the warning of the World Energy Transition Outlook 2026, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena). The numbers say that in 2025, global renewable capacity has reached 5.2 terawatts (TW). However, to follow a trajectory compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the share should rise to 18.4 TW in 2035 and 38.2 TW in 2050. Translated: it means installing on average over 1,300 gigawatts (GW) net every year over the next decade, especially through photovoltaics and wind.
But increasing production is not enough. Electricity must be able to be transported, distributed and used when needed, even in the presence of the variability of renewables. Annual investments in networks should therefore double, going from the current 500 billion dollars to around 1,000 billion in the period 2026-2035, to reach 1,200 billion in subsequent years. Global storage capacity should instead increase from the current 416 GW to 2,530 GW in 2035, reaching 6,860 GW in 2050.
The pressure on infrastructure will increase with the electrification of consumption. Electric vehicles, heat pumps and electrified industrial processes will progressively replace combustion-based technologies. Added to these are the consumption of air conditioning and data centers for artificial intelligence, which can concentrate large power demands in limited areas.
In the Irena scenario, the share of electricity in global final energy consumption should rise from the current 23% to 35% in 2035, exceeding 50% in 2050. In the European Union it could reach 64%.
Electrification also offers a structural advantage: many electric technologies consume less energy than combustion systems. But global efficiency remains lagging behind. In the last three years, the annual improvement in energy intensity, i.e. the energy needed to produce a unit of GDP, has remained under 2%, compared to the approximately 4% required by international objectives for 2030. Without an acceleration, even more plants and infrastructure will be needed to satisfy demand.
The gap also emerges from climate scenarios. According to Irena, current government energy plans remain consistent with a global temperature increase of more than 2°C. To return to a trajectory compatible with 1.5 °C, after temporarily exceeding the threshold, a much faster reduction in emissions would be needed.
The income statement is relevant. In the most ambitious scenario, Irena estimates investments and other expenses of over 256 trillion dollars between 2026 and 2050, equivalent to approximately 10,300 billion per year. The figure includes renewables, networks, storage, efficiency and technologies to electrify consumption. Compared to the trajectory of current policies, the additional requirement would amount to approximately 78 trillion over the entire period.
However, accelerating decarbonization could generate important economic benefits. In the scenario compatible with 1.5 °C, global GDP would be on average 1.1% higher than the current trajectory, with a cumulative gain estimated at around 47 trillion dollars by 2050. In an accelerated decarbonisation scenario, average final electricity prices could be 15% lower in 2050, while employment in renewables would rise from over 16 million currently to around 84 million. Potential results, subject to investments and the effectiveness of policies.
The question of energy security remains. Reducing oil and gas imports means limiting exposure to fossil market crises, but the transition shifts part of the dependencies towards critical technologies and raw materials. The report recalls that China produces around 80% of the world's photovoltaic modules and 45% of batteries.
Irena's conclusion is that the next decade will be decisive for transforming the objectives into concrete interventions. Renewable technologies are available and increasingly competitive. The challenge is to develop the infrastructure and conditions necessary to use it as quickly as possible, transforming the growth of clean capacity into a progressive reduction of fossil fuels.
