Lagarde leaves the ECB: who are the possible successors?

Christine Lagarde will leave the ECB on 7 February 2027, nine months before her natural deadline. Different interpretations emerge behind this decision: a possible new position at the World Economic Forum, the desire to facilitate the succession and the French political balance.

The successor will be chosen by European governments, with the aim of reaching an agreement possibly by December 2026. The simultaneous replacement of two other important figures could facilitate an overall negotiation.

Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernández de Cos are the main candidates. The former is perceived as more restrictive, the latter as more pragmatic. The choice could influence expectations on rates, the euro and bond markets.

France represents one of Europe's main vulnerabilities. The French 10-year yields around 4.91%, more than the Italian BTP, while the OAT-Bund spread is around 154 basis points.