Lakers vs. Warriors picks, odds: Golden State could pull off upset to begin NBA Cup play

So I have decided to do something different today in this space. I am doing well on parlays overall in the SportsLine newsletter but seem to be getting burned here on add-on legs to bring a money line favorite into plus-money. Maybe I'm reaching on a player points or something. Winning the sides no problem. So I'm gonna go with what I know: Simple two-leggers and I'll just focus on one game with the other essentially the kicker but that I feel much more confident about. And tonight, that main game is Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State.

In the previous eight NBA seasons, anytime the Warriors and Lakers faced off it was must-see TV because of Stephen Curry facing LeBron James, probably the two greatest and most important players of their generation. Alas, LeBron is now in Philadelphia so tonight's matchup between the Pacific Division rivals in San Francisco isn't quite the same, but it gives me a chance to touch on Warriors rookie sensation Yaxel Lendeborg -- and it's also the start of the NBA Cup group play.

This is the second game of an NBA on Prime Video doubleheader (a good Knicks vs. 76ers matchup is the first) with a 10 ET tip. At -2.5, the Lakers are taking 60% of the tickets and 75% of the money. The total of 234.5 is taking a sizable Over lean. That makes me laugh because five years ago 234.5 would not even be in the discussion. The NBA changes, and now it's pure offense.

The clubs opened the season against one another on Oct. 21 in Los Angeles and the Lakers rolled to a 127-105 victory behind 28 points, eight rebounds and seven assists from Luka Doncic, who didn't play the fourth quarter in a blowout. Yet he was upstaged by big man Walker Kessler in his Lakers debut as the 7-footer was 12-for-12 from the field for 26 points to go with nine boards. Those were the second-most shots without a miss in Lakers history, trailing only a 14-for-14 performance by Wilt Chamberlain in March 1969.

Curry led the Warriors with 23 points, while Lendeborg had a fairly quiet 12 points and three boards in his debut, but the No. 11 overall pick out of national champion Michigan has dominated since. Scouts were mixed on Lendeborg because he was so old coming out of college (was 23, now 24) and played power conference basketball for just one season after transferring from UAB.

If Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler were healthy, Lendeborg probably wouldn't even be a starter. But now he's averaging 22.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game and is up to a +280 second-favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year behind the Grizzlies' Cameron Boozer (+240), the No. 3 overall pick. No player has taken more ROY action in the past week at DraftKings than Lendeborg, however. He was +2800 right after the draft and +1800 when the season tipped.

He's already become the first rookie since Curry in February 2010 with at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in a game. It took Curry 51 games to accomplish the feat. While the Warriors are five games in, Lendeborg joined future Hall of Famers Patrick Ewing, David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal as the only NBA players with at least 85 points and 35 rebounds in their first four career games in the draft lottery era (since 1985-86). Finally, Lendeborg has joined Victor Wembanyama as the only rookies since 1993 to tally 100 or more points and 40 or more rebounds in their first five career games.

"His composure. I mean, he just came off of an NCAA championship run," Curry said of Lendeborg this week. "He's just got composure, feel. His size on the court; he's a matchup problem. He's never really in a hurry and he's starting to see the pictures really well. Distributing, being aggressive, getting to the free-throw line, offensive rebounding."

Lendeborg is the first Warriors rookie with three consecutive 20-point games since Klay Thompson had three in 2011-12. With Butler recovering from his torn ACL, the Warriors just didn't have anyone not named Steph Curry who could create offense. The 6-foot-9, 241-pound rookie can. For tonight, his PRA is set at 29.5. The SportsLine props model has him projected 27.8.

"The addition of Yaxel," coach Steve Kerr said, "and the ability to kind of do what Jimmy does — slow the game down, be fouled, create shots for himself or others — it's a game-changer for us."

Remember that one-touted "second timeline" the Warriors thought they could accomplish in essentially rebuilding a championship team on the fly? That never happened, in large part because they blew the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 draft on James Wiseman. Maybe getting Lendeborg at No. 11 is akin to landing Curry at No. 7 in 2009. He comes off a season-high 44 points in Wednesday's win over the Wolves. Curry made all 16 of his free throw attempts, a single-game record for him without a miss.

The Lakers have won four straight games in this series overall and four straight at Chase Center. Doncic will play after sitting out Wednesday at the Clippers. I'm so happy he's not hurt because the NBA has really had a rough week in terms of star players going down in the likes of Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero, Kawhi Leonard, Jaren Jackson and Tyrese Haliburton all picking up injuries.

Doncic leads the NBA in scoring at 36.0 PPG. Edwards is second at 33.3 and no one else is in the 30s. With Doncic in the lineup, the Lakers have scored at least 125 points in each of their first four games for the first time in franchise history. His O/U is 34.5 points. By the way, Doncic and Curry are 9-9 against one another in the regular season all-time.

I won't get too much into the NBA Cup because I don't much care, but these two are in a pretty tough Group C along with San Antonio, rising Portland and weak link Sacramento. The Spurs are -110 favorites to win the group while the Lakers are +340 and the Warriors are +1400. To simply advance, L.A. is +185 and Golden State is +650. Each of the six group winners and the second-place team with the best group-stage record in each respective conference gets a wild-card spot.