The High Council of Public Finances calls for a sustained budgetary effort for France

Orange vigilance on France's accounts. The High Council of Public Finances called on Thursday for a “significant and sustained long-term” budgetary effort to “regain control” of a public debt at exponential cost and preserve the “financial sovereignty” of the country.

“The very degraded situation of French public finances, with the combination of high debt and a very wide deficit, calls for a significant and sustained consolidation effort over time,” he wrote in an opinion on the draft State and Social Security budgets for 2027 presented by the government.

Despite the “significant” effort planned for 2027, it only allows a limited reduction in the public deficit, notes this independent body attached to the Court of Auditors: the growing cost of France's debt, accentuated by the surge in its sovereign rates, “absorbs a significant part of the savings effort”. The government is demanding an effort of 54 billion euros, including 43 billion in new measures, to reduce the public deficit to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) after an expected slippage to 5.4% this year. The debt would reach 121.7% of GDP next year, a record.

“The High Council considers that it is essential that the effort planned for 2027 is fully realized,” warned Amélie de Montchalin, president of the HCFP, during a press conference. “Our ability to regain control of the debt, to preserve our financial sovereignty, is at stake. “It is therefore not a problem for tomorrow, but for today,” added the woman who also chairs the Court of Auditors and was Minister of Public Accounts until the beginning of 2026.

While the government measures the budgetary effort in relation to the spontaneous trajectory of public finances with unchanged policies, the HCFP puts it rather at 40 billion euros excluding debt interest charges. The savings effort is reduced to 28 billion taking into account the cost of the debt, which will increase by 12 billion euros to 91 billion, according to the government.

The budgetary equation is made even more complicated for the government in an unstable international environment with inflationary surges and great political uncertainty in France. In this context, the High Council considers the economic scenario for 2026 “plausible” but considers the growth forecast for 2027 “optimistic”, forecast at 1% after 0.5% this year. Likewise, the objective of reducing the public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2029, within the European limit, is “very unlikely”.