Hydrocarbon prices jump after US strikes in Iran and the threat of a response

Hydrocarbon prices jumped on Tuesday after the new strikes carried out by Washington in Iran and the response announced by Tehran. Gas in particular is soaring, reaching its highest level in more than three years. The Dutch TTF futures contract, the European benchmark, gained 6.20% to 74.14 euros per megawatt hour. Investors are particularly concerned about the low level of reserves in different Member States. These are necessary to allow them to survive the winter. In addition to being in competition with Asia for certain cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), “Europe is preparing for the gradual exit of Russian LNG from January 1, 2027,” specifies Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management, which increases purchasing pressure for European countries.

The French are starting to feel this surge in hydrocarbons hard. The benchmark gas sales price increased by 5.6% on September 1, from 162.89 euros to 172.05 euros including tax per megawatt hour (MWh). This increase is “entirely linked to the increase in gas prices on the markets”, justified the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE). 6 million households having subscribed to an offer indexed to this average price, which varies every month, are affected.

The United States has launched strikes against Iran for the second time in days, an operation described by Donald Trump as "large and powerful." The American president also warned Tehran against any attempt to retaliate, in which case the country would be “hit again, much harder and stronger”. “A decisive operation carried out by the Iranian armed forces in response to the American enemy has begun,” announced the Iranian news agency Tasnim.

Prices fluctuate “with every news from the Strait of Hormuz”

“The hopes that emerged last week regarding an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to navigation have suffered a hard blow,” notes Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. According to him, “the question arises” as to whether despite this new escalation, “unofficial maritime traffic across the strait will be able to continue without hindrance”.

In recent months, many ships have chosen to pass through the bottleneck with transponders turned off to avoid detection. They thus make themselves less vulnerable to attacks but this complicates the monitoring of flows by the market. On Tuesday, two tankers were hit by “projectiles of unknown origin” as they left Hormuz, according to the Greek maritime agency Marisks.

“Right now, prices are reacting to virtually every news story coming out of the Strait of Hormuz: sanctions, stalled negotiations and mixed signals about Iran's desire to end the war are causing prices to fluctuate from day to day, not just keep them high,” says Strategy Shares analyst Edward Rosenberg.