Heatwaves of 2026 cost Europe 113 billion euros

The heat waves that hit Europe in 2026 cost 113 billion euros, almost two-thirds of which in Italy, Germany and France, the countries most affected, the insurer Allianz estimated on Friday. The losses suffered by the 30 European countries correspond to around 0.46% of their combined projected GDP, according to an Allianz Trade study on the climate economy in 2026 taking into account the costs linked to the damage caused by disasters but also production losses and pressures on household purchasing power due to global and food inflation.

“Italy records the heaviest burden with 27.8 billion euros, followed by Germany with 25 billion euros and France with 20.1 billion euros,” estimates Allianz Trade. Italy's loss exceeds that of Germany despite a significantly smaller economy, because its impact on growth reaches 1.19 percentage points compared to 0.54 points in Germany, the text underlines. By adding Belgium with 9.4 billion euros and the Netherlands with 9.2 billion euros, the share of these five economies reaches 81% of the total, adds the study.

Already fears for the year 2027

“Heat can reduce production without causing visible damage to buildings or equipment,” explains the insurer, noting that data from the Indian manufacturing sector links high heat conditions to lower worker productivity and increased absenteeism. Furthermore, the insurer warns that it is “likely that 2027 will be another year marked by exceptional heat on a global scale and has a strong chance of becoming the hottest year on record”.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that global average annual surface temperatures will be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average between 2026 and 2030. In addition, a "very intense" El Niño climate phenomenon is already forming and could cost $451 billion worldwide, i.e. 0.24% of GDP predicted for 144 economies, with “most of the damage occurring in 2027,” the study says. For the 27 EU member countries, the net loss due to this phenomenon could amount to “24 billion dollars, or 0.09% of GDP” (excluding droughts, forest fires and other extreme events), with an inflationary effect on prices.