
AI-generated summary
The October 3 elections follow the resignation of Prime Minister Evika Silina in May after losing the support of a key coalition party for forcing the resignation of the defense minister, who was held responsible for the state's failure to prevent drone intrusion.
On October 3, approximately 1.5 million Latvians are called to the polls to elect the 100 members of Saeima, Latvia's unicameral parliament. This election comes after Prime Minister Evika Silina announced her resignation last May. He no longer had the support of a key party in his coalition after forcing the resignation of his defense minister, who was held responsible for the Baltic state's failure to prevent drone intrusion. Also for this reason, among the issues at the center of these new votes, there is certainly that of the security of the state that borders Russia.
The Latvian parliament
The composition of the Latvian parliament is based on seats that are assigned with an open-list proportional system, divided into five multi-member constituencies. To obtain parliamentary representation, political parties or coalition lists must exceed a national threshold set at 5%.
Elections and polls
As mentioned, the 2026 elections come after the resignation of Prime Minister Silina who was replaced by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, of the centre-right United List party, who is now, according to the latest polls, the favourite. But the proportional system and political fragmentation make a single-party government unlikely. According to a recent poll, published by LSM (Latvian Public Service Media), 14.4% of those interviewed said they were ready to vote for the Joint List (AS), represented by Prime Minister Kulbergs. The Sovereign Power/Alliance of Young Latvians (SV/J) confirmed its second place with 9.4%. The third position is occupied by "Latvia First" (LPV), supported by 9.2% of respondents. In fourth place we find the Progressives (P) with 6.2% support. Followed by the National Alliance (NA), the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and the New Unity party (JV). The remaining parties are further away. According to forecasts, seven parties could exceed the 5% threshold and gain seats in the next parliament. But we must also consider that the number of undecided voters is still very high: it stands at around 19% of voters.
In-depth analysis
Latvia, accident involving Italian soldiers on exercise: 4 injured
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
No party will achieve an absolute majority, requiring a governing coalition.
Likely · Within weeks
Seven parties will exceed the 5% threshold and will obtain seats in the next Saeima.
Possible · Within days

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