Lula and Bolsonaro go head to head in the polls for the Brazilian presidential elections

What the polls say

Lula, candidate of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), is aiming for his fourth term as president, after the two consecutive ones between 2003 and 2010 and the return to the Palácio do Planalto in 2023. Challenging him is Flávio Bolsonaro, senator of the Partido Liberal (PL). The latest polls outline a head-to-head match, with Lula around 40% in the first round and Bolsonaro at 36%. In a possible second round, the president would reach 47% against his rival's 45%. The other candidates are very distant. If no candidate obtains more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round on 4 October, the two candidates with the most votes will enter the run-off on 25 October.

Lula against Bolsonaro

There are approximately 160 million Brazilians who are called to vote, and who, in fact, will decide whether to confirm as president Lula, an 80-year-old former trade unionist, icon of the global left, Catholic, seeking his fourth mandate, or whether to rely on Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old lawyer, evangelical, very rich, leader of the Trumpian right and eldest son of Jair, former president under house arrest with a 27-year sentence for his participation in the coup attempt in 2023. The two candidates are poles apart, not only politically, but also due to their personal history. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was born to a poor, illiterate family in a rural area in Pernambuco. Seventh of eight children, he moved to Sao Paulo at a very young age where, at just 14 years old, he began working as a metalworker. At 19 he lost the little finger of his left hand in a press accident. He became national leader of the union and in 1980, together with Chico Mendes, founded the Workers' Party (PT). The following year, Flavio Bolsonaro was born into a very wealthy family in Rio. A lawyer, from a very young age he followed in his father's political footsteps, first elected state deputy and then national senator. In 2016 he ran for mayor of Rio, but came fourth, stopping at 14%. In December 2025 the big step: the announcement of his candidacy as Lula's challenger to the presidential elections.

In-depth analysis

Brazil-USA, Lula contests Trump: tariffs harmful to both

The electoral campaign

Brazil comes to the vote after a very tough electoral campaign, marked by serious judicial scandals and foreign interference. An ever-present theme between the two main candidates was that of relations with the USA. Bolsonaro has already announced that in the event of victory, Brazil will join the 'Shield of the Americas', the initiative promoted by American President Donald Trump to which Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Paraguay have already joined. Born on paper to better fight drug trafficking and organized crime, according to many critics, this alliance would also have great military value. But above all, at stake is the control of rare earths, of which Brazil is very rich, as well as water resources, even those that are increasingly strategic. And it is precisely by focusing on national pride that Lula is trying to mobilize his electorate, in the opposite direction to Bolsonaro: "We are nobody's backyard", he told the UN assembly.

In-depth analysis

Brazil vote, Trump "interferes" and Lula blocks visas for US emissaries