Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are technically tied in the possible 2nd round of the October presidential election, according to a Datafolha survey released this Thursday (3). The dispute is also tight in specific groups of the electorate.
According to Datafolha, the president has 46% of voting intentions, while the senator appears with 44% in a possible 2nd round. As the margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, the two are in a technical tie.
Groups in which both are tied
Men (1 point): 46% for Flávio, 45% for Lula - margin of error of 3 points;
Southeast (2 points): 47% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 45% for Lula - margin of error of 3;
Pardos (4 points): 47% for Lula, 43%, Flávio - margin of error of 3;
High school (4 points): 47% for Flávio, 43% for Lula - margin of error of 3;
45 to 59 years old (4 points): 47% for Lula, 43% for Flávio - margin of error of 4;
35 to 44 years old (6 points): 47% for Flávio, 41% for Lula - margin of error of 5;
Whites (8 points): 49% for Flávio, 41%, Lula - margin of error of 4;
25 to 34 years old (9 points): 48% for Flávio, 39% for Lula - margin of error of 5;
60 years or more (9 points): 50% to Lula, 41% to Flávio - margin of error of 5;
Central-West/North (11 points): 51% for Flávio and 40% for Lula - margin of error of 6.
Changes between August 21st and September 3rd
The difference between Catholics was 18 points to 12: 51% for Lula, and 39% for Flávio;
Flávio's advantage among evangelicals, which was 33 points, reduced to 22: 56% to 34%;
Technical draw in the South turned into an advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro: 56% to 32%;
Flávio Bolsonaro's advantage in high school changed to a technical tie: 47% to 43%;
Technical tie in higher education became an advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro: 51% to 37%;
More young people (16 to 24 years old) changed from a technical draw to Lula's advantage: 53% to 38%;
More than 5 SM: Flávio Bolsonaro increased his advantage from 15 to 28 points: 60% to 32%;
The difference between Lula and Flávio among women, which was 13 points, fell to 7 in favor of the PT member: 48% to 41%.
Where Lula has the biggest advantages
Northeast: 62% to 28% - difference of 34 points
Elementary education: 59% to 33% - difference of 26 points
Blacks: 56% to 34% - difference of 22 points
Up to 2 SM: 55% to 36% - difference of 19 points
16 to 24 years old: 53% to 38% - difference of 15 points
Where Flávio Bolsonaro has the biggest advantages
More than 5 SM: 60% to 32% - difference of 28 points
South: 56% to 32% - difference of 24 points
Evangelicals: 56% to 34% - difference of 22 points
Higher education: 51% to 37% - difference of 14 points
More than 2 to 5 SM: 50% to 38% - difference of 12 points
See below the voting intentions for president in the 2nd round in each segment:
Political identification
Region
Genre
Age
Income
Education
Religion
Color
Political identification
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, due to political identification — Photo: Arte/g1
Region
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, by region — Photo: Arte/g1
Genre
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, by gender — Photo: Arte/g1
Age
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, by age — Photo: Arte/g1
Income
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, by family income — Photo: Arte/g1
Education
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, by education — Photo: Arte/g1
Religion
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, due to religion — Photo: Arte/g1
Color
Datafolha: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro, in possible 2nd round, by color — Photo: Arte/g1
Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) — Photo: Ricardo Stuckert and Vittor Sales
