In both Liberal and Labor research on how to meet the growing electoral threat from One Nation, one piece of advice does not change.
Do not go after Pauline Hanson personally.
Not because these parties don’t want to. They do. But after hours of focus groups, one finding is remarkably consistent: a significant group of voters see Hanson as the victim of a political pile-on.
For her supporters, any attack on her risks reinforcing that perception — particularly because Hanson has positioned herself as the outsider exposing Canberra’s cosy political club
So the strategy has been simple — demolish the argument, not the woman.
You can hear it in Angus Taylor's reluctance to take Hanson on directly. He is trying to win back voters drifting to One Nation without sounding like he is judging them. Or worse, looking down on them.
Taylor's caution can look awkward and passive. But there is a reason for it.
Kos Samaras, director of Redbridge and a former Victorian Labor strategist, says the polling explains much of why.
"That applies to about half her base. So about 15 per cent of Australians who report to us they plan to vote for One Nation have a para-social relationship with her and her party," he says.
"The other half is parked on her because they are sick of the two-party system, but they harbour some reservations about her views."
Samaras says about half of Hanson's vote is rusted on to her. The rest is softer. They are fed up with the major parties, but they still have reservations about the One Nation leader.
One Nation's Hastie strategy is risky
That makes One Nation's decision to go after Andrew Hastie particularly risky.
One Nation thrives on anti-establishment grievance. But branding a former SAS officer a traitor for evidence he gave under subpoena moves well past this terrain and into something much darker.
Samaras puts it simply: "This second half will mark her down for calling Hastie a traitor."
He is referring to One Nation's "Please Explain" cartoon, which was pinned to Hanson's X account. It called Hastie a "traitor" eight times and a "gutless maggot", seemingly in response to the deputy Liberal leader giving evidence under subpoena in the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation case.
When asked about the video, Hanson called it satire and refused to remove it.
As Hanson asks voters to treat One Nation as a party ready to govern, she will find it harder to stand only on a platform of grievance.
Hanson is formidable in telling people who to blame. She has built her brand and profile on being the lone straight talker prepared to call out politicians and a broken system letting hard-working families down.
The stuff Hanson thrives on
And politics can provide her with pretty good material.
Coverage of a public golf club getting $6 million is usually reserved for suburban papers and community social media pages.
Last week the Marrickville Golf Club found itself trending in Canberra as the government defended a grant made through its $560 million community infrastructure program.
The political storm was not whether the club needed the money; it was that Anthony Albanese had been made an honorary member and the club happens to be in his electorate.
The prime minister says he did not know the club had made him an honorary member and had not been in the clubhouse for years.
And in the kind of irony that only seems to fly in Canberra, Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie was leading the attack.
Labor tied itself in knots to say its program was different from the community grants that became known as sports rorts and resulted in Bridget McKenzie losing her job in the former Morrison government.
For voters dealing with the cost-of-living crisis, the fact that the schemes are not identical and the circumstances are different won't be the part of the story that cuts through.
They see one side of politics attack the other for the way it spends taxpayer money, then appear to do the same themselves.
This is exactly the kind of stuff Hanson thrives on.
McKenzie resigned in February 2020, after failing to disclose her membership of a gun club that received $36,000 of government funding.
Labor went hard at the time; then deputy opposition leader Richard Marles said: "Politics shouldn't be the basis on which these decisions are made. This wasn't about community sport, this was about saving the Liberal Party."
Last week, when pushed on the Marrickville grant, Albanese said: "I make no apologies for my electorate being serviced by me as a good local member."
Grievance politics isn't enough
That is the problem for the major parties: every time they attack something in opposition, then do a version of it in government, Hanson gets another free kick.
But the closer One Nation gets to power, the harder it is to survive on grievance alone.
The irony is Hanson has plenty of material without having to go for personal attacks.
Over the weekend, comments Hanson made earlier about the prime minister's mother, Maryanne Albanese, resurfaced. Albanese was raised by his mother in public housing in Sydney's inner west, where she relied on a disability pension, living with severe rheumatoid arthritis that crippled her joints.
"Housing commission houses should not be there for people to live in them for 30, 40 [years]," Hanson said. "You have been given a hand up, move it on to the next ones coming through."
Albanese on Sunday paid tribute to his mother for maintaining her kindness despite having a tough life.
"If Pauline Hanson wants to criticise me, then that's fine. But my mother was way out of Pauline Hanson's league — way out of it," an emotional Albanese said at a press conference in Sydney.
He added: "I'm proud to be a 'houso'".
This is not the first time we have had a parent brought into political debate. Back in 2012, Alan Jones said Julie Gillard's father had "died of shame". Days later, Tony Abbott told parliament her government "should have already died of shame".
Abbott at the time said he was ''absolutely oblivious'' to Jones's controversial remarks. Gillard's father had recently died; it is hard to imagine she thought much of the oblivious line.
The ugly episode was a cautionary tale on what should be off limits in politics. You would think talking about the dead or calling a former soldier a traitor would be clear, indisputable lines not to cross.
If One Nation wants to be treated as a party ready to govern — voters will see its judgement as fair game too.
Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
