The government therefore currently finds itself caught between the pressure of the spread and the global energy shock - which, even before the European constraints on the deficit, suggest prudence on public accounts with debt exceeding 138% of GDP - and the demands of the majority in view of the vote in 2027. The risk of a maneuver without margins on the deficit, with measures to be financed in full coverage, is an uphill battle now that the majority has invested political capital on personal income tax, on aid for under 35s and for businesses commercial, on pensions and on the suspension of car tax. Measures that the DPFP itself has made appear to be in the balance.
Read also: Maneuver 2027, the (difficult) stages towards approval and the measures the government is thinking about
However, in light of the Dpfp, the realization of the hypothesis of early retirement at 64 years (1.6 billion per year) and the extension of the flat tax for VAT numbers to incomes up to 100,000 euros seems less realistic. Then there are the pension adjustments to inflation, and the alarm raised by the unions on the fiscal drain from inflation: they are estimated at between 3.4 and 8 billion which are in addition to the 30 billion - according to the CGIL - cost to workers between 2022 and 2025.
As mentioned, what is "holding back" the maneuver are the numbers of the DPFP delivered to Parliament on Friday night, which refer to the warning launched on Friday by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti regarding "greater attention". Interest spending next year will break 100 billion a year. The path of net spending, the key parameter of the new Stability Pact, does not allow room for a further deficit in 2027, and instead leaves around 3.5 billion of room for maneuver in 2028 and 6.5 billion in 2029.
Read also: Maneuver, Meloni: "Evaluating the impact of inflation". EU: "More flexibility already given"
It should be remembered that the deviation that the government aims to obtain from the EU for energy and defense by activating the national safeguard clause remains in play: 14.4 billion in extra-deficit, between 2027 and 2028, for each of the two items. A ploy to find resources, entrusted to political negotiations with the EU, could be to use the escape clause for already planned expenditure on defense or energy security. In the report to Parliament on the DPFP, on the energy 'NEC', interventions are identified on public transport for students, aid to businesses on renewables and decarbonisation and energy release. There is talk of ecobonuses and charging stations but the requests are high: "helping families is necessary" but reducing bills for businesses "must be a priority" also said the vice-president of Confindustria for Energy, Aurelio Regina.
Read also: Maneuver, green light from CDM to Dpfp and budget deviation: 14 billion for energy and defense
The alternative to finding margins for the Budget Law would be remodulations of expenditure items, or cuts. Or more revenue: from the taxation of "extra profits" - a point of tension in the majority with the League pushing and Forza Italia holding back - to an always possible further increase, for example, in excise duties on tobacco. Measures which, however, would arrive with the vote just around the corner and a tax pressure that would rise to 43% in 2026 according to the DPFP.
For further information: Dpfp: "The conditions exist for Italy's exit from the EU deficit procedure"
