A survey by g1 shows that the official campaign agendas of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 2nd round of the presidential elections remain concentrated in the country's largest electoral colleges.
The movement consolidates the trend observed in the 1st round, in which candidates prioritized the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro.
According to IBGE data, the Southeast region comprises 41.78% of the national electorate. The largest electoral colleges in the country are, respectively, São Paulo (21.48%), Minas Gerais (10.32%) and Rio de Janeiro (8.10%).
In the 20 days between the first round, on October 4, and the end of the second round campaign, which ends this Saturday (24), Lula was on the street for eight days. The PT member visited eight states and the Federal District. Of these, in the first round, he won in four and was defeated by Flávio in five.
Flávio Bolsonaro visited nine Brazilian states and the Federal District in 20 days. Of these locations, he won in six and was defeated in four by the PT member.
The g1 survey was carried out based on campaign agendas and information from the candidates' official websites. Activities linked to the agendas of the Presidency of the Republic (in the case of Lula) and the Federal Senate (in the case of Flávio) were disregarded.
In the first round, five states did not see any of the two candidates pass: Acre, Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rondônia and Tocantins. Of these, three will have second-round contests for governor on Sunday: Acre, Espírito Santo and Tocantins.
In the second round, Flávio visited Espírito Santo, a state in which he came out ahead in the dispute in the first round. The other states that were left out in the first stage of the election continued without the presence of presidential candidates.
Holding commitments in more than one city on the same day marked the logistics of the two candidacies in the second round.
Flávio Bolsonaro used this strategy on five dates, interspersing metropolitan doubles — such as São Gonçalo and Rio de Janeiro — and flights between regions on the same day, such as Vitória (ES) and Salvador (BA); Marabá (PA) and Manaus (AM); Guarulhos (SP) and Fortaleza (CE); and Belo Horizonte (MG) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ).
Lula unfolded his agenda on three occasions: he toured the interior of Minas Gerais in Juiz de Fora and Ipatinga; completed a marathon through three states, passing through São Luís (MA), Juazeiro (BA) and Petrolina (PE) on the same day; and divided the final stretch of his campaign between Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
In the first round of the presidential race, Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign prioritized trips to the interior. The candidate accumulated 22 commitments in municipalities in the interior, surpassing the 18 agendas completed in capital cities. This approach aimed to consolidate platforms and expand voting in important regional hubs in the Southeast, South, Central-West and North.
In the second round, however, the PL candidacy reversed the logic and began to focus its efforts on the metropolises.
In total, there were 14 appointments in capitals and the Federal District against 4 agendas in municipalities in the interior or metropolitan regions, restricted to São Gonçalo (RJ), Capelinha (MG), Marabá (PA) and Guarulhos (SP).
The PL candidate also prioritized visiting capitals and cities in the Northeast region.
In turn, Lula's strategy in the first round was anchored in large urban centers. The PT candidate had 18 commitments in capitals and 8 in interior cities.
During the second round, Lula preserved the priority focus on capitals and large centers, adding 8 agendas in capitals and the Federal District. After mobilizations by PT activists, Lula was present at major events in São Paulo, Porto Alegre and Belo Horizonte.
At the same time, the candidate dedicated four commitments to the interior, aimed at specific regionalized articulations, including the Minas Gerais hubs of Juiz de Fora and Ipatinga, in addition to the double in the São Francisco valley between Juazeiro (BA) and Petrolina (PE).
After losing in the first round in Minas Gerais, a state known as the "pendulum" and decisive for the election, the PT campaign sought to be present before the Minas Gerais electorate.
With acts at different times, the two candidates chose the Southeast and, especially, Rio de Janeiro as their stage on the last day of the campaign.
The third largest electoral college in the country, the state is the political cradle of the Bolsonaro family. The PL candidate finished ahead in the 1st round in both the state and the capital.
On Saturday, the senator will go to Belo Horizonte in the morning, with federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) and other allies. In the afternoon, you are expected to head to Rio.
Lula takes a walk along the shore of Copacabana beach, in Rio, on Saturday morning. Afterwards, he heads to São Paulo, where he participates in an event on Avenida Paulista, ending the campaign. Despite being defeated in the state, the PT member won the 1st round in the capital of São Paulo.
