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Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London.
Risk has returned from its summer break.
But not all moves are equal, with oil and the bond market attracting the most market attention, while volatility remains muted and cryptocurrencies are unusually quiet.
The tension between the U.S. and Iran remains the main market driver, with little indication the two sides can make meaningful progress on an agreement.
What you need to know today
The swings in the oil price look set to dominate Tuesday's trading session, after sending stocks lower and bond yields higher on Monday. A rally in crude over renewed Iran tensions has stoked inflation fears, driving the 30-year Treasury bond yield to a peak not seen since 2007.
Brent is back above $90 a barrel, sending stocks across Asia-Pacific into the red. U.S. and European futures are also lower.
While the market action has picked up from a summer lull, it seems Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge," the VIX , could be indicating growing complacency. The volatility index has fallen to its lowest level of 2026, but analysts are warning "don't get too comfortable" as the U.S. mid-term elections get closer.
Ceasefire expired
Now that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has expired, attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have resumed. A cargo ship has been struck, resulting in a crew casualty and damage to the engine room, according to the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations.
It comes after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to "bomb" Oman if the Gulf nation "gets in the way" of talks with Iran.
Back to Bitcoin?
Investors should also keep an eye on Bitcoin. The world's largest cryptocurrency is currently sitting near historic lows, but Fundstrat says it could be poised for a big swing, predicting a move of around 30% or more over the next two months.
Digging for compliments
Shares in mining giant BHP are trading higher in Australia, hitting a two-month high, after the company topped earnings expectations and unveiled plans to pay its highest dividend in four years. Tune in to CNBC's Morning Call, where Morgan Brennan will speak with the CEO of BHP, Brandon Craig. Catch that interview on CNBC's livestream.
— Leonie Kidd
And Finally...
How Bettina Orlopp is leading Commerzbank through a turnaround and takeover battle
Bettina Orlopp took over as CEO of Commerzbank as the German lender was pushing ahead with a multiyear turnaround — and as UniCredit was building a stake that raised the pressure on the bank's leadership.
In this episode of Executive Decisions, Orlopp explains how she has approached leading through that pressure: staying calm, speaking candidly about difficult change and relying on trusted teams to deliver the bank's strategy.
— Steve Sedgwick
