Market report: Investors continue to be unsettled after AI crash

The leading German index rose by around 0.6 percent to around 25,980 points in early trading and is therefore on a cautious recovery path. Last Friday, the DAX fell by 1.9 percent to 25,820 points. At times he had lost over 1,000 points from the record he had achieved just the day before with 26,692 points. The losses were triggered by investors' fears of stricter AI regulation in the USA.

“Even if we see a stabilization in prices, there is growing AI fatigue among investors,” says Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at Consorsbank. "They are no longer lured by big promises to pay for all the valuations, but want to see results."

From a technical chart perspective, the following should be noted: The 25,800 point mark remains the short-term pivot point, notes IG expert Salah-Eddine Bouhmidi. "A sustainable recapture and subsequent defense would be important steps towards stabilization and would improve the chances of a year-end rally."

At the start of the week, investors are naturally wondering what will happen next on the market. It could remain turbulent, but according to experts there are also opportunities for the German leading index: The fact that the DAX is not particularly technology-heavy makes it an interesting alternative for many investors in the current market phase, states portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from asset manager QC Partners.

Andreas Lipkow, chief market analyst at broker CMC Markets, also sees the European stock markets as still having the opportunity to at least partially decouple themselves from the weakness of the US technology exchanges. The hoped-for end-of-year rally does not have to happen, but it is likely to be more bumpy than expected just a few days ago.

One of the factors determining the direction this week is the accounting season. From today to Thursday, the reinsurers Hannover Re and Munich Re, the utilities Eon and RWE as well as Siemens and Henkel will be presenting quarterly figures from the DAX. In addition, two German AI beneficiaries, Infineon and Siemens Energy, are also in the spotlight.

In addition to geopolitics and monetary policy, corporate profits remain a key price driver. If the numbers turn out to be stronger than expected, the DAX could benefit from this.

Next Tuesday could provide some indication of how US monetary policy could continue. Then the current October inflation data from the USA will be available. Robert Greil, chief strategist at private bank Merck Finck, expects inflation to reach four percent. “This means that the inflation rate on both sides of the Atlantic would be twice as high as the ECB and Fed are aiming for,” writes Greil.

The US labor market remains robust, inflation is too high and the conflict in the Middle East is unresolved, says Maximilian Wienke, market analyst at broker etoro. "The Fed could therefore be forced to raise interest rates further. High returns also make financing more expensive and increase the capital costs of tech companies."

The DAX is receiving support today from fresh economic figures. Exports from German companies rose by 2.0 percent compared to August, as the Federal Statistical Office announced. In total, goods worth 141.1 billion euros were exported.

“Exports are resuming their upward trend,” comments Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Bethmann HAL Bank. "This is good news, especially since competition from China remains high. Foreign trade is likely to support economic growth for the time being, but not drive it forward."