According to initial calculations, the DAX is expected to be slightly below the previous day's level this morning. At the beginning of the week, the German leading index had gained almost 0.8 percent to 25,277 points - and also defied an increase in oil prices. But the risks remain high because an end to the high energy prices does not seem to be in sight. On the contrary: the attack by the Yemeni Houthi rebels on the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh points to further escalation.
In addition to the geostrategically difficult world situation, investors are also looking ahead to the start of the US reporting season, which starts with the quarterly figures from the major banks before the start of trading on Wall Street. Four of the six major US houses, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and the leading investment bank Goldman Sachs, are opening their books.
In addition, the major corporations Johnson & Johnson, a healthcare giant included in the leading Dow Jones index, as well as the country's largest health insurer, UnitedHealth, also report.
Meanwhile, the guidance from Asia is weak, the markets in the Far East suffered from geopolitical tensions and weak US technology stocks. "It's fair to say that the Japanese stock market will be influenced by the downtrend in U.S. semiconductor stocks today," said Maki Sawada, strategist at Nomura Securities. The Nikkei index lost over two percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is currently raising its economic forecast for Germany and the global economy. The IMF now expects Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.3 percent this year, according to the world economic outlook published today at the IMF's annual meeting in Bangkok.
That is 0.6 percentage points more than forecast in July and is in line with the federal government's forecast. The IMF also raised its expectations for global economic performance slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent.
The IMF now expects global economic growth to slow slightly less than previously expected, as industrialized countries have shown resilience despite rising energy prices since the Iran war. "The global economy has proven resilient, but that resilience is under pressure and the risks to growth are tilted to the downside," said IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro.
Prices on the crude oil market remain high after the attacks on the airport in the Saudi capital Riyadh and rose to a two-week high. North Sea crude oil Brent and US light oil WTI rose in price between 1.3 and 1.5 percent to around 106 and 93 dollars per barrel. The prices are currently only slightly lower.
Following the expansion of attacks by the Houthi rebels, analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their Brent price forecast for December from $85 to $90 per barrel. The energy sector was one of the strongest sectors in the S&P 500 due to rising oil prices
Before the start of the US accounting season, US investors were cautious at the beginning of the week. The US standard value index Dow Jones gained 0.4 percent to 51,851 points on Monday. The technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.4 percent to 27,246 points and the broad S&P 500 closed little changed at 7,807 points.
“The big themes to watch in earnings season are how companies are using and benefiting from AI,” said Clark Bellin of Bellwether Wealth. It is also important whether they maintain or increase their pricing power and how they can deal with the increased credit costs.
Rising oil prices and the uncertain situation in the Middle East weighed on sentiment again on Monday. Chip stocks also trended weaker. In addition, investors held back from the bond market due to a lack of stimulus as the US bond market remained closed for the Columbus Day holiday.
Stock traders were also concerned about yields recently rising to a 24-year high as high energy prices fueled inflation concerns. The prospect of rising corporate profits and the hope that the Fed could avoid short-term interest rate hikes pushed the three most important stock market indices into positive territory last week.
