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Back|Michael Winiarski: Europe can take over the US's mediating role in Ukraine
Michael Winiarski: Europe can take over the US's mediating role in Ukraine
Developing
Dagens Nyheter·1 hour ago·World·3 min read·

Michael Winiarski: Europe can take over the US's mediating role in Ukraine

Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre have opened talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, signaling a changing dynamic in the diplomacy of the Ukraine war.

Quick Look

  • Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre have initiated talks with Vladimir Putin.
  • The initiative is interpreted as a sign that the US's attempt to mediate peace in Ukraine has failed, while Russia now wants to include Europe in the process.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Since 2022, Russia has avoided peace negotiations and made maximalist demands on Ukraine. US attempts to mediate have so far not led to an end to the war.

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The fact that Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre have now initiated a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin can be seen as proof that the US's attempt to end the war in Ukraine has failed. Of Trump's grandiose campaign promise to end the war within 24 hours, not even an inch was achieved, as is well known.

What was said between the Nordic and Russian leaders has not yet emerged, beyond the usual diplomatic wording that the conversation was "open and substantial".

Soon it will be five years since Putin ordered the large-scale attack on Ukraine, but since the spring of 2022 there have been no real peace negotiations between the warring parties. Putin, for his part, has consistently said no to all Ukrainian proposals for a ceasefire.

Instead, Trump and Putin have discussed a solution based primarily on Russia's maximalist demands: a recognition of Russia's conquests of Ukrainian territory, no credible security guarantees for Ukraine, regime change in Kiev and a major disarmament of Ukraine's defense capabilities.

These are demands that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has flatly rejected.

The matter has not been made better by the fact that these talks have taken place over Ukraine's head and without Europe at the table.

But recently there have been signals from the Kremlin that Europe - which for several years has been labeled as the major geopolitical enemy - should be given a role in the peace talks. It is no coincidence that Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov opened up this weekend that Europe should be included in the discussions on a peace settlement, "because its position can be decisive when the US has not succeeded in pressuring Kiev to agree to a peace agreement".

- After Anchorage (the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska in August 2025, DN note) it looked as if the US would have been able to dictate something and force Kiev to obey it. But so far it hasn't really worked. That's because it's not enough to just talk to Kiev, we have to talk to all of Europe, which fully supports Kiev, Ushakov said.

The clear signal from Moscow has now caused the two Nordic leaders Stubb and Støre to take on the role of interlocutors to Putin. They explain that they spoke to Putin as representatives of their countries - and not of all of Europe. And that the talks took place in agreement with Ukraine.

From all accounts, the governments of Denmark and Sweden had not been consulted before the talks. It is unclear to what extent any of the heavier EU countries, such as France and Germany, were informed. The US was probably involved in the initiative.

Why then does Moscow suddenly have an interest in drawing Europe into discussions about the Ukraine war? One reason may be that the Kremlin realizes that Trump has been weakened both domestically and internationally and has not made Zelenskyi "obey" his order to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. In addition, the United States has withdrawn most of its economic and military support to Ukraine, while Europe provides almost all aid. With this, Europe must be involved in some form if a peace settlement is to be reached.

Another intention from the Russian side is that they want to expand the talks to an old horse: a discussion of the security architecture of Europe as a whole. In Moscow, it is believed that the order that prevails in Europe - where most countries turn to NATO - disadvantages Russia.

Russia wants NATO to withdraw its military from Europe's eastern flank, following the same model that Putin proposed in December 2021, in the run-up to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Then Russia issued a public ultimatum: NATO must reduce its military presence in countries such as Poland, Romania and the Baltics to the situation that prevailed in 1997, before the Western defense pact brought in new members from the former Soviet bloc. After the Russian intervention five years ago, both Finland and Sweden have also joined NATO.

It may sound like a new threat to Europe is embedded in a conciliatory gesture. Or the beginning of a diplomatic breakthrough.

At the same time, Russia continues to escalate the bombing war with the aim of destroying more and more of Ukraine's living conditions.

Open Questions

  • ?What was the exact content of the conversations between Stubb, Støre and Putin?
  • ?How do other EU countries react to this initiative?

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This article was originally published by Dagens Nyheter.

Quick Look

  • Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre have initiated talks with Vladimir Putin.
  • The initiative is interpreted as a sign that the US's attempt to mediate peace in Ukraine has failed, while Russia now wants to include Europe in the process.

AI-generated summary

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1 hour ago
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