Michael Winiarski: The people are cheering, but where is Serbia going?

Another authoritarian, nationalist and pro-Russian potentate has lost power in south-eastern Europe in half a year. There are some similarities: In April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán surprisingly quickly admitted that he had lost to opposition challenger Péter Magyar after 16 years in power.

Aleksandar Vučić, who ruled Serbia for almost as long, first as prime minister and then as president, was just as quick to accept that he had lost to the opposition Student List.

Serbia faces partly the same challenges as Hungary. When Péter Magyar took power in Hungary, he faced the task of dismantling Orbán's party control over the courts and media. The goal was also to re-establish the relationship with Europe. The regime change meant that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump lost their most important ally within the EU.

One can insert the Serbian election and earlier the Hungarian one into an international pattern that emerges more and more clearly. In many countries – this year Brazil, Israel and the USA, next year France and Poland – the choice is between democracy and an authoritarian right-wing nationalism. Although yesterday's election results in Serbia and Brazil please liberal and progressive democracy advocates, it cannot be said that they herald a new trend in world politics. In most countries, societies are divided into two halves, making it impossible to predict winners in upcoming elections.

Much also separates the Hungarian and Serbian election victories. Serbia has much deeper historical ties with Russia, not least because both countries are East Slavic and predominantly Christian Orthodox.

While Magyar was the undisputed leader of a well-organized movement with a clear political program, the Student List in Serbia has declared itself a leaderless grassroots movement, and it is not entirely clear what the movement's program is. The new group that will take power consists mainly of academics and lacks experienced, polished politicians.

During election night, Radomir Saicic, one of the Student List's candidates, said that the Serbs have shown that "there is no obstacle greater than our will" and that "no force can forever defeat a nation that has decided to take its destiny into its own hands":

- Today we celebrate the victory, tomorrow we build the future.

But who will rule the country? And in which direction should it go? There is no known candidate for the post of prime minister. As for the presidency, an election will be held later this fall. Vučić resigned in September to run for parliament, which was an attempt to copy Putin's ploy of switching jobs between president and prime minister to maintain power. But it failed for Vučić, mainly because, unlike Russia, Serbia still had democratic elections.

And then the most important question: Which political path should Serbia's new leadership take? The Student List has – unlike Magyar's Tisza party – both pro-EU and nationalist and pro-Russian members. It does not have a clearly stated stance on the most difficult foreign issues: Russia's war in Ukraine, possible EU membership and Kosovo. What is clear is that a strong phalanx within the Student List opposes sanctions against Russia and recognition of Kosovo's independence. It remains to be seen whether the internal contradictions can be overcome and what the result will be.