Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who along with businessman Steve Witkoff manages the negotiations with Russia, struck an optimistic tone after the round of negotiations in the United Arab Emirates capital.
On Thursday, Trump's two envoys visited Moscow to continue talks, now directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to news agencies, Putin reportedly told them that foreign forces involved in a possible post-war peace effort would be seen as "legitimate targets."
It doesn't sound like much of a willingness to compromise. When Kushner and Witkoff meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin on Friday, it will appear that the Russians are not offering any significant concessions. The deliberations have thus not yielded visible results.
That the situation remains deadlocked is hardly surprising given that Putin had appointed the hard-line nationalist Vladimir Medinsky as chief negotiator. Medinsky was open to Russia's terms for ending the war: Ukrainian surrender.
When Medinsky left the meeting in Abu Dhabi, he declared that "every inch of our land will, in one way or another, come back to Russia." In other words: either Russia achieves its goals on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
Russian territorial claims have never been crystal clear, but at a minimum, Russia claims all of Donbass and those parts of Zaporizhzhya and Kherson that the Russian army has not managed to capture on the battlefield. Zelenskyi has rejected that. He may agree to freeze the current front line if there is a ceasefire. On Thursday, Zelensky said:
- We must be clear that we never in any way recognize Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory.
When Medinskij talks about "Russian land", it is of course about much more: The lands that, according to Putin's view of history, were taken from Moscow in connection with what Putin called "the greatest geopolitical disaster of the century", i.e. the collapse of the Soviet Union 35 years ago. And then, in addition to Ukraine, Belarus, and the three Baltic states, eastern Poland and the southern Caucasus and Central Asian states such as Kazakhstan are also included.
Exactly how far the restoration of Russian and Soviet great power empire will be pushed depends - from Moscow's point of view - on the military outcome of the "special military operation", as the Ukraine war is still called.
This ultimatum was rejected by the West, and two months later Russia launched a major offensive against Ukraine.
Medinsky recalled how Putin has previously formulated the matter:
- It is as our leader has so clearly said: Wherever a Russian soldier has set foot, it is ours. And where a Russian flag has been hoisted, it must never be hauled down.
Medinsky also stated that Russia is only satisfied with the negotiations "if there is peace on our terms". But he broadened his ambitions beyond dominion over Ukraine: The most important goal, said Medinsky, is to create a security system in Europe that could become "a new Yalta or Potsdam."
The two place names stand for the places where the victorious powers of the Second World War (the United States, Great Britain and the Soviet Union) agreed on how to divide Europe between them. As a result, Moscow was given full control over most of Central and Eastern Europe.
- If we can create a new fair security system, we will ensure peace in Europe for decades, perhaps centuries, said Medinskij.
It is clear that the proposal for "a new security architecture" is a variant of the proposal presented by Russia in December 2021. It called for a reduced role for NATO in Eastern Europe, including no Ukrainian membership in the defense alliance and withdrawal of NATO military from the countries that joined NATO after 1997.
This ultimatum was rejected by the West, and two months later Russia launched a major offensive against Ukraine.
