After nine months of silence, the tripartite talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US have resumed. Representatives from the countries met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday to negotiate an end to the war.
US envoy Jared Kushner opened the meeting with some promising words that the parties had "identified and narrowed the gaps" between them. He also got some talking points from father-in-law Donald Trump that it is now time to end the war so that both countries can "start to pursue their full potential".
"Very productive conversation" was the American rating after the first day.
If, however, one listens to what the warring countries bring forward, it is clear that the starting values are the same as in the previous fruitless talks:
Russia wants to discuss over the head of Ukraine about a broader security arrangement in Europe. Kiev's importance is diminishing, despite Ukrainian forces inflicting the biggest Russian losses since World War II by a large margin.
At the same time, the Kremlin absolutely does not want the Europeans to sit at the negotiating table, and the proposal to start with a ceasefire was dismissed by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as a way for Brussels to buy time.
At the same time as the Abu Dhabi meeting was going on on Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelenskyj met Nordic leaders in Copenhagen. There, the Ukrainian president stated that he currently sees no diplomatic solution to the war. He was clear that the delegation in the Middle East does not have a mandate to negotiate on territory.
That Kyiv would succumb to the pressure and give up Donbass is unthinkable. It would be an invitation to Putin, he explains in an interview with Danmarks Radio.
- I know that he will move in immediately and occupy us, Zelenskyy said, adding that any discussions about land areas can only be discussed in meetings at the highest level.
For over four and a half years, Ukrainian soldiers have been fighting in Donbass, tens of thousands have died defending the area from the Russian occupiers. Ukraine was reluctant to give up territory during the Istanbul 2022 negotiations, during the talks last winter and has even more reasons to refuse concessions now.
For two months in a row, Russia has lost ground in Donetsk, the part of Donbass where the fighting is going on. Although most of the county is occupied by the Russians, 20 percent is under Ukrainian control. It is over 5,000 square kilometers, an area as large as the whole of Halland.
At the same time, Russia's losses are record high and the Kremlin's forces are unable to pressure Ukraine in as many places as before during the war.
When breakthroughs at the front failed, Russian leader Vladimir Putin turned to trying to force Ukraine into submission through massive bombing of the country's cities, Kiev in particular. Just hours before the talks began on Tuesday, Russia carried out attacks in several parts of the country.
Putin wants to make life unbearable for ordinary Ukrainians and here in the capital the escalation is clearly felt. Although winter has not yet started, we have problems with the water supply, and we now only have electricity for a couple of hours a day.
Compared to previous winters, this year Russia also aims to cripple Ukraine by destroying the bridges over the Dnipro River. In several cities, this means enormous difficulties in getting around.
Ukrainians are war-weary and dreading the coming winter months, but so far there is no sign that the Kremlin's tactics are working at the negotiating table.
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