Middle East Conflict Cuts 120 bcm of LNG Supply by 2030, IEA Report Says
Qatar and UAE supplies drop 20 bcm as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global LNG markets
Quick Look
- The International Energy Agency reports that the Middle East conflict has caused the loss of around 120 bcm of cumulative LNG supply for 2026-2030, representing 15% of expected global supply.
- LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE have fallen by 20 bcm since March due to Strait of Hormuz closure, with Iranian strikes on Qatari plants potentially reducing production by nearly 70 bcm.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The IEA's Gas Market Report provides the first comprehensive assessment of how the Middle East conflict is affecting global LNG supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical chokepoint for LNG shipments.
MOSCOW, April 24. /TASS/. The military conflict in the Middle East has already led to the loss of 120 bln cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to global markets by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency's Gas Market Report. "The Middle East conflict has already caused the loss of around 120 bcm of cumulative LNG supply for the period 2026-2030 when considering the combined effect of the near-term supply disruptions and the medium-term implications for supply. The losses resulting from the Middle East conflict account for around 15% of the expected global LNG supply over the 2026-2030 period," the report said. Since the beginning of March, LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE have already fallen by a combined 20 bcm due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, restarting LNG plant capacity could take several weeks, resulting in production volumes being roughly another 10 bcm lower than under normal operation. Iran's strikes on Qatari plants could reduce Qatar's LNG production by nearly 70 bcm by 2030, assuming repairs to the damaged lines take about four years. Moreover, Qatar will be forced to delay the North Field East project, which could reduce LNG supplies by approximately another 20 bcm between 2026 and 2030.
Open Questions
- When will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
- What is the extent of damage to Qatari LNG facilities?
- Will other countries increase LNG production to compensate?





