Midterms 2026: Trump's migration policy unsettles companies

Last September, six Spanish-speaking workers were sitting in a car on a shoulder in Highland, Michigan. No fewer than nine ICE patrol cars pushed them to the side of the road and stopped them. An irritated officer demands the papers. When he sees that the man in the passenger seat is recording him with his cell phone, he slams his hand towards the smartphone. The workers barely speak English, the officials don't speak Spanish, and the atmosphere is tense.

Tyler Ralko posted the video online shortly afterwards. Ralko is the junior boss of GLC Property Maintenance, a gardening and landscaping company. The six men are his employees, come from Guatemala, work legally here in Michigan and are allowed to continue driving after being vetted by ICE.

Ralko says he immediately apologized wholeheartedly to his colleagues, "as Americans": "They come here for a better life, for themselves and their families. For them, America is this wonderful place where you can achieve prosperity. And then to see how they were treated there was really sad for me."

ICE officials are unsettling

It is not known why ICE stopped the men. But in Donald Trump's America it is now legal to control people simply because they are not white or do not speak English. The Supreme Court decided that a year ago.

Ralko's company currently has 57 employees. Twelve of them come from Guatemala and have H-2B work permits. Without these men it wouldn't work, says Ralko, especially not in summer, the high season, especially since the company wants to continue to grow.

For about two years he has been primarily busy looking for staff. But finding “reliable” employees is difficult. After the incident with ICE, Ralko says he now worries that some of his colleagues from Guatemala might not want to come back to Highland next year.

Unlike in other states, ICE raids in Michigan have rarely made headlines. But President Trump's tough course on migration policy is also causing uncertainty here.

700,000 people have already been deported

In the presidential election two years ago, most voters in Michigan voted for Trump. Many people wanted immigration laws to be strictly enforced. Trump promised to deport foreigners who had committed crimes in particular, and that was well received.

Since then, the government has gone far beyond this goal. Aaron Reichlin-Melnik from the American Immigration Council estimates that around 700,000 people have been deported so far under Trump. That would be many times the number of foreigners who have committed crimes. Reichlin-Melnik, who is a respected expert in the field of migration, says that the government itself has not yet published any reliable figures. Therefore only estimates are possible:

With the stroke of a pen, hundreds of thousands of people who enjoyed special protection status (“Temporary Protected Status”) became people who were staying in the country illegally and who could expect to be arrested and deported at any time.

According to Reichlin-Melnick, around 25,000 people have been deported to third countries so far, most of them to Mexico - and several hundred to African countries such as Eswatini, South Sudan, Equatorial Guinea and Ghana. Often, according to the migration expert, those affected did not even have a passport, a cell phone or money with them when ICE flew them out to a country they had never set foot in before.

There are “illegals” and “illegals”

Representative opinion polls show that this cruel course is alienating more and more Americans. Trump now has most people against him when it comes to migration policy. That could influence the midterm elections in November. Americans have long differentiated between “illegals” and “illegals,” explains Reichlin-Melnick:

Around 85 percent of people are in favor of expelling migrants who have committed serious crimes. But in order to deport a foreigner who has lived, worked, paid taxes and raised children in the country for many years, from the point of view of most Americans there must be a way to legalize his residence and become a citizen.

"Suddenly the restaurant closed"

The USA even depends on people without a residence permit. Around every second worker on construction sites in Texas is in the country illegally. Replacing these men with US citizens may be impossible. Qiana Towns Williams, a writer and activist, also believes that Trump's migration policy is damaging the domestic economy. She reports on a case that recently made headlines in her hometown of Flint, Michigan.

It was about the co-owner of a Japanese restaurant. Suddenly ICE took him away. This was a shock for the community and scared many people. The person affected was a committed member of his neighborhood: "At a time when the government was cutting food aid, his restaurant was distributing free food." But now the restaurant has closed.

Demands for a change of course

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and several major industry associations have long been lobbying the government in Washington to advocate for a change in immigration policy, including the National Restaurant Association, the National Association of Home Builders and the American Farm Bureau Federation - associations that represent the hospitality, homebuilding and agriculture industries, all industries that employ large numbers of people, and often foreigners.

The consequences of Trump's migration policy for the economy and growth have not yet been examined on a large scale. Reliable studies take time. However, an initial analysis by the Brookings think tank shows that the employment rate fell in the cities where ICE carried out large-scale raids last year. And even six months later, she still hasn't recovered.