These results likely imply future investigations into the war in Iran, the functioning of the FBI, and, of course, the Trump family businesses. To gauge their political magnitude: it is as if you had Bill Clinton's Whitewater scandal and the first impeachment procedure against Donald Trump combined, with the Iran-Contra affair thrown in for spice.
What will be the impact of these major political upheavals on Europe? From energy prices to the war in Ukraine, the continent's future depends largely on what happens in Washington. Here are five points to watch.
Europe risks paying the price of Trump's frustration
Some seasoned observers estimate that this is not only possible, but highly probable. "We must prepare not for more harmonious transatlantic relations, but for more animosity and even more demands from Trump toward Europe," warned Wolfgang Ischinger, an experienced German diplomat who long presided over the Munich Security Conference.
Democrats will have more opportunities to oppose Donald Trump through budget procedures and by being firmer during oversight hearings and investigations. They will probably also begin to impose stricter conditions on bills desired by the White House.
But the US president has considerable constitutional leeway in foreign policy, diplomacy, and national security — as well as trade policy. And Donald Trump has openly seized it, resorting to executive orders and developing unprecedented and controversial legal strategies to bypass Congress.
"[Trump] is at the head of the armed forces. He has his hand on tariffs and trade agreements. He has an influential bully pulpit. Even if the Democrats win both chambers, he can veto bills," enumerated Phil Gordon, former national security advisor to former Vice President Kamala Harris, to Brussels Playbook.
More confrontations are to be expected. Donald Trump will likely want to show that he is still the boss and master of the universe. And it is on the international stage that he will have the best chance to do so. Europe has long been in his sights and that of his loyal supporters of the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, who shed crocodile tears for the continent, claiming to want to save Europe from itself.
A lull for Ukraine
Most leading figures of the Democratic Party have always supported granting aid to Ukraine. They present this decision as a means of defending democracy in the world and international law, but also as a measure serving US national security interests.
Democrats can begin to put in place the conditions necessary to help Ukraine. But one should not "expect immediate salvation for Zelensky," warned Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, a British think tank. "Because even if the Democrats decide to start sending more aid to Kyiv, including financial, it will actually take months, or perhaps years, to materialize," she added.
Ukraine needs immediate aid, including Patriot missiles for its air defense, in order to face the winter under Russia's incessant bombardments.
A Trumpian peace deal
Donald Trump presented himself as the president of peace, loudly claiming to have ended eight international conflicts. He stated that the peace deal with Ukraine should have been the easiest to conclude and increasingly blames his president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for not having reached an agreement.
Former US diplomat Kurt Volker estimates that Donald Trump will disregard Kyiv's protests and European allies, and "start lifting sanctions and concluding trade deals with Russia."
And the same imagines: "I see him very well acting unilaterally, ordering the US Treasury not to apply sanctions and seeking to conclude more energy deals with Russia. He has discussed with Putin the possibility of bringing major American companies back to Russia."
But when it comes to NATO and carrying out his threats to reduce US military presence on the continent, Donald Trump will make more noise than harm, anticipates Kurt Volker. "For NATO, I don't think much will change regarding a withdrawal from the Alliance or a reduction of the military device. In the United States, Trump is really alone in defending this position: he has the support of neither Democrats, nor Republicans, nor Congress, nor the media."
A drop in energy prices
Will energy prices collapse? Don't bet on it. Monday, oil prices recorded their sharpest drop since August — even though Brent was still trading at $108 per barrel.
Unless Donald Trump concludes a peace deal with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the energy shock driving up electricity costs in Europe and worsening the cost-of-living crisis will continue — thus skewing the European political game. Regarding airlines, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned that without a deal, the sector would be "facing a real crisis by March or April next year."
Donald Trump has no good options regarding Iran: relaunch military operations hoping the Iranians back down or the theocratic regime collapses; give in himself; or disengage by claiming that it is the others — that is, Europeans or Asians — who must solve the problem.
The resumption of military operations and an even sharper spike in energy prices will be very unpopular in the United States, but the electoral damage is already done.
Just chaos… and little time for the rest
It is also possible that the United States is so absorbed and preoccupied by the political war raging in Washington that neither Donald Trump nor the Democrats have much time to devote to anything else, including foreign policy.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris warned last month, in a podcast, that Democrats should not attempt to impeach Donald Trump again, estimating that it was "not a good idea."
Rahm Emanuel, former mayor of Chicago, urged his Democratic colleagues to avoid "infighting" and, in Congress, to prioritize cost-of-living issues, increasing the federal minimum wage, and developing new ethics rules for the three branches — executive, legislative, and judicial.
Despite these calls, Washington has rarely escaped violent infighting.
And political reckonings risk spreading everywhere, with some of the most violent confrontations taking place within each party itself, predicts John F. Harris, co-founder and president of POLITICO. "The two major parties are facing crucial choices about how to present themselves to voters in the future post-Trump political era," he argued.
This article was first published by POLITICO in English, then edited in French by Jean-Christophe Catalon.
