The moderates are the biggest on the right after the election – SD backs down for the first time

After the election, the Moderates are once again the largest on the right. Losing that position to the Sweden Democrats in 2022 was a big blow for the party. This time SD backed down for the first time in a parliamentary election, while M increased slightly.

The curve continues to point upwards for Ulf Kristersson's party. In DN/Ipso's first voter barometer after the election, 22 percent of respondents state that they would vote for M. You have to go back six years to find a higher rating. This can be compared with just under 20 in the election.

Nicklas Källebring, opinion analyst at Ipsos, sees a main explanation for M's increase.

- It is the decline of the Liberals. They have only retained about two-thirds of those who voted for the party in the election. Most have been lost to the Moderates. It is clear that it is support voters who are returning, he says.

That the Liberals would hang on to the Riksdag seemed unlikely for a long time. L leader Simona Mohamsson openly appealed for help from other parties' sympathizers in a way that has hardly occurred before. On election night, it was clear that they had managed to attract enough people to get by.

Now the Liberals are back in the risk zone regarding the parliamentary deadlock. The support is 4 percent rounded up in the new measurement.

DN/Ipso's data confirms that SD's long growth curve has been broken. A support of 17 percent is on par with the election result and at the same time the lowest in the measurement series in eight years. This means that SD's disadvantage against M is just over 5 percentage points. Such a large difference has not been measured in M's favor since the beginning of 2018.

- The moderates made a strong election and the rise has continued after election day. Now you are up to where you were during Carl Bildt's time as party leader, but it is a long way from Reinfeldt levels, says Nicklas Källebring.

For the parties whose objective is to appoint a new prime minister, the changes are marginal. The investigation has been carried out during the period when information about possible election fraud in Borlänge and Järva has taken up a lot of space in the debate. In both cases, it is about the Left Party, but no effects are visible in public opinion. With voter support of 8 percent, V remains on par with the election results.

- The left party does not seem to have taken any significant damage, says Nicklas Källebring.

The weeks after the election have not been a success for the intended government-former Magdalena Andersson (S). On Monday, she announced that she was resigning from her probe mission, after V chose not to support the Social Democrats' speaker candidate. The negotiations between the four parties S, V, C and MP have gotten nowhere.

There is also a standstill in public opinion for S. With 28 percent, the party remains close to the election result, which was the worst since universal suffrage was introduced.

Other parties are also close to their shares of the votes in the election: the Center Party at 7 percent, the Green Party and the Christian Democrats both at 6. The balance of power between the blocs is largely unchanged.

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