Monsoon withdrawal to begin in west Rajasthan this weekend as deficit exceeds 14%
Quick Look
- India's southwest monsoon, with a cumulative rainfall deficit exceeding 14% as of September 14, is expected to start withdrawing from west Rajasthan this weekend, according to the India Meteorological Department.
- The deficit raises concerns of drought conditions affecting farm output, water storage, and hydropower, despite near-normal kharif sowing levels.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The southwest monsoon typically withdraws from September 17 and ends by October 15, preceding the winter monsoon in peninsular India. In May, IMD forecasted a 'below normal' monsoon with 60% probability of deficient rainfall due to El Nino's influence.
NEW DELHI: The southwest (summer) monsoon, which has so far reported a cumulative (June 1-Sept 14) rainfall deficit of over 14% this season, is likely to start withdrawing from west Rajasthan this weekend. IMD predicted Monday that conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon's withdrawal around Sept 19. Monsoon normally starts withdrawing from Sept 17 and its withdrawal process ends on Oct 15 - a few days ahead of the onset of winter monsoon in peninsular India.
Join conversation
Share your thoughts in the comments
Be respectful · TOI community guidelines
The deficit of more than 14% as of Monday shows that monsoon this year is more likely to end with a deficit of 10% or more - a deficient rainfall condition that is considered a drought in the country, with its impact on the farm sector, water storage and hydropower potential. In May, IMD predicted a 'below normal' monsoon (June-Sept) in the country, with a 60% probability of 'deficient' rainfall due to the impact of El Nino, a climatic condition that is invariably associated with a harsh summer and a weak monsoon in India. Though the huge deficit of rainfall did not impact acreage of kharif (summer-sown) crops much, with sown area this year as of Sept 11 only around 1.5% less than sown area during the corresponding period in 2025, the impact can only be assessed through yield when harvesting begins in Oct. "Although sowing has progressed well, it doesn't mean the sector is out of danger," said ratings agency Crisil.
End of Article
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Monsoon withdrawal will begin in west Rajasthan around September 19
Likely · Within days
Monsoon season will end with a rainfall deficit of 10% or more
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What will be the actual yield impact on kharif crops when harvesting begins in October?
- How will water reservoir levels be affected by the end of the monsoon season?
- What mitigation measures are being considered for potential drought conditions?
