Himalayan glaciers are melting faster, threatening the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in South Asia

Author, Soutik Biswas

Character, BBC India Correspondent

Posted: 5 minutes ago

Reading time: 3 minutes

The Himalayas are approaching a dangerous tipping point. According to a new study, Himalayan glaciers are currently losing ice 65% faster than 10 years ago.

The findings, published by global consultancy Systemiq, come as Nepal-Tibet experiences landslides and floods that have killed more than 1,300 people and caused widespread damage, highlighting the risks posed by melting glaciers.

The report points out that as glaciers recede, they may leave behind ever-expanding glacial lakes that are only held back by unstable accumulations of rock and ice. At the same time, warming is destabilizing permafrost—perennially frozen land that may thaw as temperatures rise—and mountain slopes, increasing the likelihood of cascading disasters.

However, the report points out that of the estimated 40,000 glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram region, only about 21 are currently being monitored in detail and continuously. If there are huge gaps in monitoring, it will be difficult to track the rapidly changing local landscape.

Systemiq's report was published jointly with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and received technical support from the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment.

These risks will have a significant impact on India.

The report pointed out that about 18% of India's land is located in the Himalayas, but the region accounts for about 35% of the country's disasters.

The Indian government told Congress in July this year that after a scientific assessment of 189 high-risk glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas in 2025, 56 of them were classified as "extremely high risk." The government said India's Central Water Commission is currently monitoring 2,485 glacial lakes covering an area of ​​more than 10 hectares in various river basins in the Indian Himalayas.

In the Himalayas, there have been instances in the past where glacial lakes burst their banks with devastating consequences.

In 2023, a glacier lake outburst flood occurred in the Indian state of Sikkim, killing at least 70 people and causing extensive damage to roads, bridges and hydropower facilities. In 2021, a similar disaster occurred in Uttarakhand. A massive flood swept through the Rishikesh and Dhauliganga river basins, killing more than 200 people.

However, the dangers are not limited to such shocking floods.

The Himalayas are a vast natural water system that supports rivers that hundreds of millions of people in South Asia depend on for their livelihoods. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) said that most Hindu Kush Himalayan river basins are expected to experience "peak water" around the middle of this century - a stage when glacier runoff reaches its highest point and then begins to decline as glaciers lose mass.

This latest study further illustrates the extent of this dependence in unusually large economic numbers.

The report estimates that Himalayan water resources support about 20% of India's gross domestic product (GDP), supporting industries such as wheat, rice, tea, hydropower and the pilgrimage economy. However, the report pointed out that the actual economic value obtained by these mountainous states only accounts for about 5% of this.

“The Himalayas are the ‘third pole,’” said economist Lord Nicholas Stern, chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

"Unlike the Arctic or Antarctic, this 'pole' is home to hundreds of millions of people."

He said Himalayan water "is infrastructure at a national and international level" and warned that the ecosystems that support it are "approaching tipping point".

Not all factors causing glacier loss are beyond the region's control.

Systemiq's research estimates that about one-third of glacier melt in the Himalayas is caused by black carbon, much of which comes from brick kilns in the plains. Soot deposited on snow and ice absorbs more sunlight, speeding melting.

The report points out that unlike global greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon pollution is a factor that India and its neighbors can take direct action to control.

Arushi Chopra, senior director at Systemiq and lead author of the report, said: "The Himalayas are approaching a tipping point, with millions of lives and livelihoods at stake. Glaciers are melting faster than they were 10 years ago."

The report proposes ten priority transformation measures, including reducing black carbon emissions, expanding glacier monitoring, improving disaster early warning systems, and changing the way mountain tourism is developed.

One priority is to strengthen disaster preparedness so that governments agree in advance on what actions should be taken when risks arise - from evacuation arrangements to protecting vulnerable infrastructure, everything should be planned in advance.

Another priority is to rethink the tourism development model. The report points out that the Indian Himalayan region receives about 400 million tourist visits every year. Researchers believe that the development goal should shift from "maximizing the number of tourists" to "creating economic value that can be retained and returned to the local area."

ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho said the risks are becoming increasingly complex.

"Glaciers are retreating, permafrost and mountainous terrain are becoming increasingly unstable, and downstream communities and infrastructure face increasing risks from complex and interlocking hazards," he said.