Trump in Washington yesterday: The reason for the defeat. Photo: Imago
Podcast
Midterms: Mega issue of affordability / Federal government: capital pension is postponed
Just now Play 08:18
Good morning, dear readers,
There are many good reasons for the clear defeat of US President Donald Trump's Republicans in the midterm elections for Congress - but one decisive one: Trump underestimated the effect of the price increases, caused primarily by his Iran war.
Corruption, attacks on democratic institutions – none of this affected Trump for months. But since gas prices have risen, his core constituency has revolted. That doesn't mean that high prices are the only reason why Republicans lost their previous majorities in both houses of Congress on Tuesday. But apparently the motive that motivated the decisive swing voters in the end.
This insight is also relevant beyond the USA - it contains two unpleasant messages: right-wing populists are not vulnerable to moral appeals to save democracy, but rather when they fail to deliver. And the issue of affordability is also spilling over into Europe. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said yesterday: "Now is the world's opportunity to unite to address the problem that affects us all." But there is little to gain for governments.
Fuel prices would fall if the Iran war ends. But rising housing costs, climate-related food price increases or rising health care costs across the West are not so easy to reduce.
The issue will also catch up with Chancellor Friedrich Merz - and will be difficult to solve, especially for a government party with a clean regulatory policy. Because more useful than an “affordability debate” would be an “availability debate”, i.e. the question of why individual products and services are so scarce that prices rise. But that hardly promises quick solutions.
A remarkable event from last night shows how explosive the topic is: The clearest public difference to date between Trump and his deputy JD Vance arose. The latter argued that the Republicans had lost the election because of the Iran war and the resulting rising prices in the USA. He had always had concerns. Trump, on the other hand, announced:
“The Iran War was worth it.”
Democratic Governor Gina Hinojosa and Senator James Talarico from Texas: The Democrats could slow down AI expansion in the state. Photo: Getty Images via AFP
US Election II: AI wins, AI loses
At first glance, it doesn't add up: the Democrats mobilized against data centers in the election campaign - and the companies that operate them rose on the stock market yesterday. Amazon and Microsoft each gained over six percent. The neocloud provider CoreWeave, on the other hand, lost almost ten percent, Nvidia more than three.
My colleagues Philipp Alvares de Souza Soares and Antonia Mannweiler provide the explanation: For CoreWeave and Co., the construction of data centers is the business model, financed on credit. For the hyperscalers it is a cost block. The US bank Goldman Sachs predicted that $1.2 trillion could flow into AI expansion next year. If the Democrats slow down the expansion, more will remain in the cash flow - for shareholders who have been complaining about the avalanche of costs for weeks, this will be more of a relief than a threat.
Hubert Aiwanger: Bavaria's economics minister was found dead last night. Photo: Peter Kneffel/dpa
Bavaria: Economics Minister Aiwanger found dead in Berlin
The Bavarian Economics Minister Hubert Aiwanger, also chairman of the Free Voters, was found dead in a Berlin hotel room yesterday evening. Aiwanger was in the city to inaugurate his party's new federal office. He canceled the appointment at short notice due to health reasons. The Berlin public prosecutor's office confirmed Aiwanger's death in the evening, but gave no further information.
Aiwanger was 55 years old. The Lower Bavarian had two children and lived with the Free Voters district administrator Tanja Schweiger. With Aiwanger, the Free Voters are losing their most distinctive and certainly most controversial figure.
Chancellor Merz (l.), Labor Minister Schweitzer: Team with delivery problems. Photo: Thomas Frey/dpa
Capital pension: It comes, it doesn't come, it comes...
Somewhere in Berlin's government district someone must have laid out large amounts of quicksand - in any case, a growing number of reform projects are sinking. The abolition of the pension without deductions after 45 years of contributions is still being fought over, but now it hits the heart of the pension reform: Only “key points” should be in place for the funded pillar of the statutory pension by Christmas; the law should not follow until 2027.
Just four weeks ago, Merz promised at the Handelsblatt's Germany summit: "I'm sure we'll have it through the cabinet by Christmas." He did not explain why the capital pension was now being spun off. Will the project come up again next year? Quicksand is treacherous - what has once sunk gets deeper and deeper.
Chancellor Merz, Telekom boss Höttges (r.): Two men, two goals. Photo: Bloomberg
Telekom: Höttges and the major shareholder
It would be one of the largest mergers of two listed companies of all time: Telekom boss Timotheus Höttges is pushing forward the merger with the US subsidiary T-Mobile US. As my colleagues Leila Al-Serori and Stephan Scheuer learned, he has two problems: Elon Musk is increasingly pushing into the traditional mobile communications market with Starlink. And Höttges has to convince the Chancellor.
The federal government has around 28.6 percent of Telekom and therefore a blocking minority. What he doesn't have: a clear motive for agreeing to Höttges' plans. His share would be diluted and a merged group would probably no longer be based in Germany - Ireland and Switzerland are being discussed. Merz shouldn't rely on Höttges giving in quickly. A long-time companion said to my colleagues:
“Höttges definitely wants the merger; it should be the highlight of his time as CEO.”
Peek & Cloppenburg managing director Freienstein: Looking for real estate. Photo: Peek & Cloppenburg Düsseldorf
Trade: Peek & Cloppenburg throws out Peek & Cloppenburg
If your own family terminates the rental agreement: According to information from my colleagues Florian Kolf and Anja Müller, Peek & Cloppenburg has to vacate its headquarters in Düsseldorf by October 2027. Competitor Inditex becomes the new tenant. According to industry circles, he should also take over the cosmopolitan city houses on Berlin's Kurfürstendamm and on Frankfurt's Zeil. Spicy: The real estate is managed by Midstad, which, like the dealer, belongs to Patrick Cloppenburg's family.
Western Europe boss Constanze Freienstein had already described the logic in a Handelsblatt interview in mid-October, with a view to Cloppenburg: “He as a landlord and we as tenants each have to ask ourselves: What is best for us?” The answer seems to have been found.
Janosch in his self-image: A farewell greeting. Photo: dpa
Oh, how sad Panama is
“But we can keep the books?” asked our son yesterday when he heard the news of the death of the children’s book author Janosch. Otherwise there would have been a larger gap in the bookshelf. The news is still sad: the artist and writer, Horst Eckert in his civil life, has died at the age of 95.
He has been inspiring children all over the world since the 1970s with books like “Oh, how beautiful Panama is.” What remains are his figures tiger, bear and tiger duck - and an ink and watercolor drawing that his Tübingen publisher Bernhard Feil published yesterday. Then there was a man in a blue jacket and trousers, with a farewell greeting underneath: “I was Mr. Janosch.”
I hope you discover your Panama this Thursday.
You
Sven Prange
Lead Editor
PS: How safe are we actually? Cyberattacks, hybrid threats, shifting alliances. What does this mean specifically for the Bundeswehr, for companies and for society? The new podcast from Handelsblatt and Tagesspiegel Background explores exactly these questions. New episodes of “How Safe Are We?” appear every Wednesday, the first one can be found here on Spotify and on Apple.
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