Intelligence chiefs warn of Russian aggression and disinformation

For an hour, the presidents of the Federal Intelligence Service and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution warned about Russia's aggressive behavior towards Germany, when Green Party politician Konstantin von Notz pointed out what he called a contradiction. He refers to the recent state elections. Haven't they shown, he asks the group, that politicians and security authorities are not getting through all their warnings to a significant part of the population and that many citizens have instead chosen parties that are not nearly as decisively opposed to Russian aggression? Von Notz wants to know how this can be changed.

This Monday morning the annual public hearing will take place before the Parliamentary Control Committee in the Bundestag. The presidents of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the BND and the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) answered questions from MPs for several hours. This format has existed for ten years to at least shed some light on the otherwise very shady work of the intelligence services. In these ten years, the security situation in Germany has deteriorated enormously, as all three point out in their opening statements.

And for several years they have been warning, above all, about Russia's growing aggression against Germany, the largest European supporter of the invaded Ukraine. “Russia is waging a shadow war against us,” summarized BND President Martin Jäger on Monday. But at the same time, he and his colleagues also have to admit that awareness of this among the population has not grown to the same extent. On the contrary: the Russia-friendly AfD is stronger than ever.

So what to do? Sinan Selen, the President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, says that German politicians and the security authorities must demonstrate their ability to act. But even that won't provide a handle against the wide spread of disinformation, he adds. Selen says self-critically that the disruptive power that false information, supported by artificial intelligence, can have for a long time has not been sufficiently recognized. Martina Rosenberg, the President of the MAD, which deals with the defense of extremist efforts in the Bundeswehr, speaks of the need for a resilient society that stands together and stops contradictions.

As in previous years, Von Notz suggests that the intelligence services could publish regular reports that are understandable to the population in order to better understand Russia's daily hybrid attacks. Selen's answer sounds a bit resigned: The skeptics won't be won back that way.

But that doesn't influence the intelligence chiefs' assessment of the situation. BND President Jäger is the most clear. Russia is Germany's most dangerous opponent, he says. And the dispute recently came to a head again. Jäger cites the attack on Leipzig Airport by a drone loaded with explosives as an example. Germany is in the crosshairs because of its continued support for Ukraine; But Russia wants to destabilize the West in general. “Anyone who doesn’t comply becomes an enemy.”

The goal of Putin's regime is to put Germany and NATO to the test. Russia is watching closely how debates take place in Germany and who expresses themselves and how. “Any sign of fickleness is dangerous,” says the BND president. Moscow is betting on Germany's weakness. You have to withstand all provocations. In this context, Jäger, who was previously the German ambassador in Kiev, also mentioned Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), who traveled to Kiev on Sunday for a solidarity visit.

The SPD MP Daniel Baldy wants to know from Jäger whether it is still true that, according to intelligence information, Russia could be in a position to wage war against other European countries in 2029. Jäger replies that the date still applies as far as Russia's capabilities are concerned. But he doesn't expect the Russians to plan a full-scale attack. However, pinprick actions are to be expected, for example in the Baltics. False flag actions are also possible. It can already be observed almost daily that Russia wants to create a new normality with drone flights over NATO territory.

President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Selen reported on Monday that his office had observed manipulation campaigns that were of Russian origin before state and local elections. Their content was to discredit the democratic center, to blame politicians for fabricated scandals and the like. But such manipulation campaigns don't stop there. Russia consciously accepts civilian casualties, Selen speaks of possible killing operations. “It is important to defend the front line of a robust democracy.”