Some of the clichés about millennials are still true. In the United States, this generation, now aged just over 30 to around 45, may have spent approximately US$1.5 billion on avocados last year, according to a rough estimate from The Economist. Millennials also actually buy more craft beer than other generational groups.
But in rich countries, an even more persistent stereotype about them no longer matches the facts. They no longer face the same difficulties as before. Many earn more than their parents. A growing number occupy positions of real power in business, politics and culture. The proportion of property owners is increasing rapidly.
This represents a radical shift from the 2010s, when millennials were in their 20s. During the worst moment of Greece's economic crisis, unemployment among young people exceeded 50%. The salaries of British people of this age were practically not growing. Social movements led by millennials — from the UK Uncut to Occupy Wall Street in the United States — gave an idea of the degree of dissatisfaction with the status quo. The same was true of the widespread support for left-wing veterans such as Jeremy Corbyn, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Bernie Sanders.
Many millennials would still vote for these socialist veterans. But doing so serves less and less of their economic interests. A survey by The Economist on the income of millennials in 32 rich countries shows that, in just three — Italy, Greece and Japan —, they are in a worse situation than previous generations were at the same age, considering income adjusted for inflation.
At age 30, Italian millennials earned 10% less than members of Generation X (born approximately between 1965 and 1979) earned at that age. Their Greek peers continue to lag behind young adults in the 2000s, before the crisis began in 2009. In Japan, the household income of a 35-year-old in 2019 was lower than that of someone of the same age in 1994.
Still, these three cases are just exceptions. In the other 29 countries in our sample, millennials have higher real incomes than previous generations. In some, such as Australia, the United Kingdom and France, intergenerational progress has slowed. But in many others, from the wealthy United States to Poland, the pace of improvement has accelerated.
In addition to being well off on average, many millennials are rising to the top. An American millennial is now just as likely to hold a management position as a member of Generation X was at the same age. The growth of the technology sector in the United States has also enriched the generation: millennials represent almost a tenth of American billionaires, more than double the share of Generation X in 2011. Millennials run Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta, three artificial intelligence powerhouses — and therefore control one of the most transformative technologies ever created.
Even in politics, supposedly dominated by older people, millennials are doing very well. They run the governments of Hungary, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and New York City — and, soon, probably Brazil (where a 45-year-old right-winger, barely young enough to qualify as a millennial, is the favorite to defeat the current 80-year-old left-wing president in the second round of the presidential election on October 25). Betting markets assign a probability of about 50% that the next president of the United States will be a millennial (three possible favorites, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff and JD Vance, are all between the ages of 31 and 45).
The improvement in the situation of millennials has two main causes: the economy and demography. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 hit them especially hard. Young employees are the last to come in and the first to leave, so they suffer most during a recession. Today, however, the rich world's job market is as strong as it has ever been.
Demographics also help. After the financial crisis, many baby boomers decided to stay in the job market for a few more years to rebuild their retirement savings, which reduced the number of senior roles available to young people. But the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated retirements: a study in the United States identified 3 million "excess retirees" by the end of 2022. There are not enough young workers to replace older workers who leave their posts. Millennials benefit from this relative labor shortage.
What about housing, the biggest source of complaints for millennials? At the age of 30, around 40% of American millennials owned their own home, a much lower proportion than Generation X at the same age. But among older millennials, now in their 40s, the homeownership rate is exactly the same as that of Generation
Older millennials have benefited from the improving economy, which has allowed them to save more for a down payment on a home. In recent years, governments have relaxed requirements for real estate financing. Many millennials with college degrees also needed time to reduce their student debt. Our analysis of official American data indicates that today's richest young people (with incomes exceeding US$200,000 per year) have much lower home ownership rates than young people with equivalent financial conditions in previous generations.
If, in theory, money is not a problem, what is? For starters, millennials spent more time studying than previous generations. They also tend to get married later. Among American men, the median age at first marriage is 31, compared to 27 in the 1990s. This postpones the time when they need to buy a home for their family. In part because homeownership rates are rising, millennials are accumulating wealth faster than previous generations at the same age.
Above all, millennials are well positioned for what comes next. If artificial intelligence disrupts the job market, young workers will once again bear the brunt. If anyone has reason to feel unhappy, perhaps it is the members of Generation Z, born approximately between 1997 and 2012, whose job prospects may worsen as their millennial managers invest in technologies that replace labor.
Millennials are also about to receive a hefty inheritance bill. We estimate that the assets left by deceased people are already equivalent, each year, to around 10% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) throughout the rich world. The IFS calculates that, in real terms, the median inheritance for people born in England in the 1980s will be around €136,000 ($180,000), compared to €66,000 for those born in the 1960s. Don't feel sorry for millennials. Now, the economy is theirs.
