New images suggest China’s fourth aircraft carrier could launch in 2027, analysts say

China’s fourth aircraft carrier, widely believed to be China’s first with a nuclear powered system, could launch as early as next year, according to US researchers, as Beijing pursues a fleet capable of projecting naval and air power far beyond its shores.

A launch in 2027 would coincide with the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army, with the anniversary falling on August 1. Beijing has previously used major military anniversaries to showcase developments in its armed forces.

The Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in an updated assessment on Tuesday that satellite imagery from this month shows the warship – commonly referred to as the Type 004 – at a construction stage comparable to that of China’s third carrier, the Fujian, in May 2021, about a year before its June 2022 launch.

This suggests the Type 004 could enter the water next year. However, analysts cautioned that its larger size and potentially more complex propulsion system, as well as unforeseen issues, could put it on a different schedule from the Fujian. Beijing does not disclose construction timelines.