NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 5, 2026: Fade the Broncos

For those participants who have made it through to Week 5 of their NFL survivor pool -- and then avoided the Bucs' upset of Dallas on Thursday -- another challenging Sunday awaits as several rivalry games highlight this week's action. Among them include Bears at Packers (+1.5), Giants at Commanders (-3.5) and 49ers at Seahawks (-3). Other top games featured include Colts at Steelers (-2.5), Raiders at Patriots (-3.5), Browns at Jets (-2.5), Vikings at Saints (+1.5) and Ravens at Falcons (-3) on 'Sunday Night Football.'

With all those tight spreads, many NFL survivor players will take a long look at Bengals at Dolphins (+7) and Texans at Titans (+6.5). Both road favorites in those games have significant question marks, however. Cincinnati is banged up and coming off back-to-back losses. The Texans, meanwhile, are winless on the season. Before making any Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks or NFL knockout pool picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. It nailed its Week 4 survivor pick, picking the Ravens to beat the Titans.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 5 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 5 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the Denver Broncos, who are 3.5-point and -185 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the winless Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET.

The Broncos simply haven't done enough on the road this season to inspire any confidence. They are 0-2 with both losses coming by double digits. They've scored a combined 24 points in those two matchups, so even thought the level of competition drops this week, the model isn't confident that they'll light up the scoreboard in this one.

Jim Harbaugh, meanwhile, is in a desperate spot after an 0-4 start. The Chargers, however, have kept it within one score on the road against the Seahawks and Bills in the past two weeks. Now back at home, Los Angeles is projected by SportsLine's model to 47% of the time making the Broncos and extremely risky play for NFL survivor pools this week. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.