NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 5, 2026: Fade the Steelers

For those participants who have made it through to Week 5 of their NFL Survivor Pool, another challenging week awaits as several rivalry games highlight this week's action. Among them include Bears at Packers (+2.5), Giants at Commanders (-3.5) and 49ers at Seahawks (-3). Jayden Daniels is slated to make his return for Washington against the Giants. Other top games featured include Colts at Steelers (-2.5), Raiders at Patriots (-3.5), Browns at Jets (-2.5), Vikings at Saints (+1.5) and Ravens at Falcons (+3.5) on 'Sunday Night Football,' and Bills at Rams (-2.5) on 'Monday Night Football.' Lamar Jackson (ankle) is out for 'SNF.' Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Meanwhile no Sunday game has a larger NFL spread to consider for Week 5 NFL knockout picks than Bengals vs. Dolphins (+7.5). The game takes place in Miami, where the Dolphins are 9-2 versus Cincy over their last 11 meetings. Still, there are a few other games that NFL survivor players are considering such as Texans vs. Titans (+7), which is the lone matchup between winless squads and has seen Houston win five straight road trips to Nashville. Before making any Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks or NFL knockout pool picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. It nailed its Week 4 survivor pick, picking the Ravens to beat the Titans.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 5 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 5 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

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Top Week 5 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 2.5-point and -135 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the Colts at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Pittsburgh has been up-and-down, posting a win over the struggling Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 and a banged-up Atlanta Falcons team missing their starting quarterback in the season opener. In between that, they have losses at New England and Cleveland.

The Steelers are led by aging veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has completed just 57.5% of his passes for 999 yards and seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Jaylen Warren leads the Pittsburgh ground attack with 55 carries for 309 yards (5.6 average), but no touchdowns. One of the team's prized offseason additions in receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) will miss Sunday's game and be out for an extended time.

The Colts are led by Daniel Jones at quarterback. He is completing 63.6% of his passes for 754 yards and three touchdowns and four picks. Running back Jonathan Taylor has carried 86 times for 353 yards (4.1 average) and six touchdowns. SportsLine's model is projecting a 2-point game, making Pittsburgh a risky survivor play this week as it wins just 47% of the time. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.