NFL survivor pool picks, knockout strategy, advice for Week 6, 2026: Fade the Pittsburgh Steelers

More Week 5 upsets have further thinned NFL survivor pools. As a result, millions of players have found themselves on the sidelines. More went down with upset wins by the Packers, Jets and the tie between the Giants and Commanders. For those participants who have made it through to Week 6 of their NFL survivor pool, another challenging Sunday awaits as several rivalry games highlight this week's action. Among them include Ravens at Browns (+3), with Baltimore without Lamar Jackson (ankle), Jets at Patriots (-7), Titans at Colts (-7), Chargers at Chiefs (-7.5) and Cowboys at Packers (-1) on 'Sunday Night Football.'

With several tight spreads, many NFL survivor players will take a long look at Cardinals at Rams (-12.5) and Commanders at 49ers (-7.5) on Monday night. Three teams remain winless on the year, all at 0-5 in the Chargers, Titans and Dolphins, although Miami has its bye. Before making any Week 6 NFL survivor pool picks or NFL knockout pool picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. It nailed its Week 5 survivor pick, picking the Bengals to beat the Dolphins.

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 6 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 6 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

In Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 2.5-point and -139 money-line favorites at the best betting apps against the one-win Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh has mustered just 13.5 points per game on the road this year, and the model has the Steelers winning just 53% of the time in Week 6, making them an extremely risky pick. Aaron Rodgers has been decent this season, but has completed just 59.8% of his passes and has an 88.9 passer rating. Pittsburgh also lost in Week 2 to a Patriots team with a rest advantage, as Tampa played last Thursday.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a mini bye and Jalon Daniels will again get the start with Baker Mayfield (thumb) ruled out. Running back Bucky Irving leads the Bucs' rushing attack, carrying 77 times for 406 yards and two touchdowns. The model has Pittsburgh winning just 52% of the time in a 1-point game, so there are several other favorites it prefers this week. See which team to pick instead here.

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in well over 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.