Bills vs. Raiders prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL Week 6 picks by proven model

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills hope to build momentum after a big win, while Kirk Cousins and the Las Vegas Raiders aim to stop a downward trend when the AFC teams face off in a Week 6 matchup Sunday on CBS and Paramount+. The Bills arrive to Vegas on a short week after a 37-34 overtime win over the Rams on Monday night. They rank among the NFL's highest-scoring teams at 32.8 points per game, powered by Allen's dual-threat ability and a strong ground game led by James Cook (532 rushing yards, 5 TDs). The Raiders, meanwhile, have dropped two straight after a 3-0 start, including a 45-17 blowout loss to the Patriots. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2023, a 38-10 Buffalo victory.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The latest Bills vs. Raiders odds have Buffalo as a 5.5-point favorite. The over/under for total points scored is 53.5. Both teams are 4-1 against the spread this season, while the Over is a combined 7-3. Before making any Raiders vs. Bills picks, be sure to see the Bills vs. Raiders predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Bills vs. Raiders. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Raiders vs. Bills:

Top Bills vs. Raiders predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Raiders vs. Bills, the model is going Over 53.5 points at betting apps. Each team certainly is led by offenses that can score. Buffalo averages 32.8 ppg so far, tied with Detroit for the most in the NFL. Vegas isn't far behind 26.4 ppg as Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen are forecasted to combine for four passing touchdowns.

Those high-scoring offenses will face leaky defenses. Buffalo is surrendering 28.2 ppg, Vegas 25.8. Injuries are a concern to both teams on the offensive end; Bills wideouts DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer and Raiders TE Brock Bowers.

Key injuries to monitor include Bills receivers DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer (shoulder) and Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (knee) have been limited in practices leading up to the matchup.

That doesn't stop the model from projecting 57 combined points as the Over clears 56% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bills vs. Raiders picks

In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.