The third and fourth weeks of the NFL season are where the first signs of separation form on the road to the Super Bowl. Mutli-game leads and deficits exist in the standings for the first time, and some of them are shocking. The Packers, for one, are two games back of the NFC North lead and in sole possession of last place in the division. The Rams have a stunning two-game gap of their own to close in the NFC West, which comes as a complete surprise.
It is still early enough that some of the results will prove themselves as outliers, and many teams will regress back toward their preseason expectations. Teams like the Broncos who stand in the middle of their divisions have enough runway to pull away from the pack or slip to the bottom of the pecking order. There is far too much time left to draw season-defining conclusions.
Everything that occurred in Weeks 1-3 matters in the season-long picture, though. Here is how it impacted the Super Bowl race.
Super Bowl odds entering Week 4
Odds via DraftKings, +2000 or better
Rams: +670
Bills: +670
49ers: +900
Ravens: +900
Seahawks: +1000
Chiefs: +1050
Eagles: +1700
Bengals: +1700
Lions: +1900
Broncos: +2000
Stock up: Broncos attack difficult schedule head on
The first month of the Broncos' schedule is brutal, yet they have a shot at leaving it at 3-1. The back-to-back wins they logged following the Week 1 egg they laid not only confirmed that they can beat Super Bowl contenders but also prevented them from falling into an early-season hole. That 31-10 loss to the Chiefs had the looks of a "this team was not nearly as good as everyone thought last year" kind of performance but now resembles more of a season-opening aberration.
Some of the concerns from the loss popped up again in the first half of last week's win over the Rams because of the unsightly 16-0 deficit, and perhaps this Broncos team will prove too inconsistent to compete for a Lombardi Trophy. But the upside is undeniable. The way they stymied Matthew Stafford in the second half of that game and Trevor Lawrence the week before was emblematic of how much of a nightmare this defense can be for opposing quarterbacks.
Stock down: Packers could finish last in NFC North
In order to win the Super Bowl, you need to make the playoffs first. And the Packers have a long, uphill climb ahead of them in order to get into the postseason bracket. If they remain in their current form, they could finish the year closer to the No. 1 pick than the No. 1 seed. The state of affairs is that bad.
Green Bay's only win came against the New York Jets in overtime. The losses were the product of an utter collapse in Week 1 and an embarrassing defensive effort against a Falcons team that entered the latest edition of "Thursday Night Football" winless and in search of any glimmer of life. Coach Matt LaFleur called the 21-point home loss to the Falcons a butt-whooping." That it was. The offensive line's woefulness was obvious, the defense continued to look like a shell of itself and the Josh Jacobs-less rushing attack remained hapless.
None of those issues are going to correct themselves overnight. It will be a season-long effort to mitigate the deficiencies or find ways to mask them. LaFleur has his work cut out for him, and his job might rely on it.
Long shot of the week: Raiders (+9000)
There are few good reasons to believe the Raiders' 3-0 start is anything more than the product of a favorable schedule. Their opponents are a combined 1-8. Let's choose to buy in for a moment, though.
Klint Kubiak might just be an amazing coach. He won the Super Bowl last year as an offensive coordinator who produced the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year and who made Sam Darnold at times look like a top-flight quarterback. Maybe this roaring start to his head coaching career is just the first sign of numerous fruitful years to come. The defense under Rob Leonard has been remarkable, too, as the No. 3 unit in EPA per play allowed. Again, likely the result of playing against two sputtering teams in Weeks 1 and 2, but potentially more meaningful.
Even if this Raiders team does pan out as a better-than-expected squad, winning the Super Bowl is a massive reach. Getting there would not be unprecedented considering the Patriots made it last year on the heels of a four-win season, though.
Week 4 games to watch
Rams at Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox, stream on Fubo
This season will go from disappointing to downright concerning for one of these teams. A 1-3 start for the preseason Super Bowl favorite Rams would be unfathomable. Continued struggles for an Eagles team mired in offensive mediocrity would be more believable but no less worrisome. Both sides need this one badly.
Broncos at 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS, stream on Paramount+
A combined five consecutive wins make the Broncos and 49ers two of the top teams in the NFL through three weeks. Denver's tough stretch continues with a difficult road test, and the last time Sean Payton took his team away from the Mile High City, they lost by three touchdowns. The statuses of Mike Evans and Trent Williams are ones to monitor on the San Francisco side as injuries rear their heads once again for a franchise that seemingly cannot escape them.
Patriots at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS, stream on Paramount+
The first of two highly anticipated AFC East showdowns is slightly less anticipated now than it was at the start of the year. The Patriots' puzzling start -- a product of Drake Maye's unexplainable struggles and A.J. Brown's absence -- give this a chance to unravel into a resounding Bills victory. If that comes to fruition, Buffalo will continue to assert itself as the NFL's team to beat while New England could drift further into a crater.
Jaguars at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS, stream on Paramount+
