Expect the unexpected when it comes to the NFL -- if you're doing anything other than that, you're running a fool's errand. Just look at Thursday night's dominance by the Buccaneers over the Cowboys despite having a backup quarterback and being massive road underdogs. That's life in the NFL.
Let's continue to expect the unexpected as we head into the meat of Week 5 and remember that even though we've seen roughly a quarter of the season from these teams, we probably still don't know that much about them and exactly what they're capable of doing (or not doing) on a week-to-week basis.
Let's find some winners!
Best bets for NFL Week 5
Cardinals +5.5 vs. Lions
I think this line is crazy. The Cardinals aren't a "good" football team, per se, but are the Lions? Defensively, we know they are not. Every quarterback who has played them this year has had their best game against Detroit, except for Bryce Young -- who also carved them up. He had a better game against the Falcons. Jacoby Brissett has plenty of weapons to cook here and if the line wants to keep moving to the Lions, I am here for it. Detroit will be able to score easily against Arizona and Jahmyr Gibbs could be in store for a monster game. We have a massive total, the highest on the slate by more than a touchdown. With that much scoring expected, I'll happily take the variance and the points with a capable offense.
Chargers +3.5 vs. Broncos
Like the Buccaneers, the Chargers are 0-4. And like the Bucs, the Chargers have looked like a horrible football team the entire first quarter of the season. Unlike the Bucs, the Chargers have to face a much stiffer test on defense this week in the form of the Broncos, but they will get the advantage of not seeing Patrick Surtain for this game. Mike McDaniel is under fire right now and if he doesn't cook up a game plan here, the heat will only intensify. Life will be made tougher by the fact the Bolts are going to be shorthanded with both tackles missing and Ladd McConkey. A handful of defensive veterans are possibly out as well. It's the sort of injury report that would make you want to really, really shy away from this team. But we're going to lean in and respect the desperation and talent on the rest of the roster.
Steelers -2.5 vs. Colts
The Steelers might not be trustworthy and might very well be a completely average (or worse) team. But this is a great spot for them to bounce back from a humiliating Week 4 loss to the Browns. They played Thursday night against Cleveland while the Colts played Sunday morning in London against Washington. That rest and travel disparity is a big deal and the Colts hardly looked stout on defense against the Commanders overseas. Aaron Rodgers needs to summon a throwback game and put this team on his shoulders, and this looks like a good spot to do that.
Week 5 NFL player props
Christian Watson Over 23.5 longest reception
The Bears have been getting a lot of love for their recent defensive performance after a disastrous Week 1 against the Panthers. I think there's a chance they might be a bit of a paper tiger, somewhat propped up by the offense's ability to control the ball. And while the Packers aren't looking so great on offense either, they can sling the ball around a little bit. Jordan Love's really concentrated his targets around three guys this year and Christian Watson's been his primary deep threat. This is a reasonable number against a defense that is very capable of giving up some longer shots down the field if the Packers show up on offense.
Bhayshul Tuten Over 65.5 rush yards
The Eagles are in a bad place health-wise right now and they have to head across the pond to play the Jaguars in a really tough spot. The offensive injuries have been a focal point and rightfully so, but they saw a lot of guys banged up last week on defense as well. Tuten has been really impressive this season and should see more of a bellcow role for a Jacksonville offense that has been humming. With the Jags likely capable of shutting down the Eagles on offense, Tuten should see plenty of carries and threaten for 100 yards on the day.
Anytime touchdown scorer props for Week 4
We're rolling with a half unit for most of these as we're taking some deeper, plus-money shots on most of our touchdown looks this week.
Nico Collins (+145)
When Collins is healthy, he's the focal point of the Texans offense. It's not really close in terms of who C.J. Stroud looks for and Collins is healthy for this one, meaning he'll get plenty of downfield and red-zone looks against a Titans team that can be had through the air.
Brock Bowers (+140)
Even though I fully expect the Patriots to double team Bowers as much as possible and force other players to beat them, the Chiefs tried the same strategy to a degree as well. And Bowers beat them for a touchdown, albeit one in garbage time. He's going to be deployed in unique ways by Klint Kubiak and he will absolutely be Kirk Cousins' go-to look when the Raiders get in the red zone. I think this game can get a little loose and I want to go back to the Bowers well.
George Kittle (+185)
